Stacks · STX

STX -4% in 2h (-11% in 24h) while BTC flat; futures OI falls, funding negative

bearishseverity 2/3confidence 60%donescore 6.0opened 2026-10-17 13:16 UTCclaude-opus-5-5

STX slid steadily from $0.3799 to $0.3646 (-4.04%) over the window, with the drop speeding up after 12:45. That extends a 24h loss of 11.1%, while BTC (-0.18%) and ETH (-0.65%) barely moved. The derivatives data looks like longs closing out: open interest fell, funding is negative on all three venues, and the few liquidations were all longs. The evidence does not show a specific catalyst, and the volume behind the move is thin in dollar terms.

What happened

STX fell 4.04% from $0.379927 to $0.364589 in a steady grind lower. Most of the drop came after 12:45 ($0.3725 → $0.3646). 1h change is -2.6%, 24h -11.11% and 7d -9.08%. Market cap is $683.5M (rank #96). E1
CoinGraph price-move signals fired at 13:06 (1h -3.14%, z 3.35) and at 13:15 (1h -2.65%, z 2.77). E11
Binance STX/USDT traded $195.8K in the last hour, 2.3× a typical hour ($85.2K). Every one of the busiest minutes closed down, e.g. 11:26 $41.5K (-0.21%), 13:03 $34.8K (-0.30%) and 12:50 $31.9K (-0.46%). E2

Likely causes

1.STX-specific selling with longs unwinding, not a market-wide move. BTC and ETH were nearly flat while STX fell 4%, and Binance OI dropped as price fell (positions closing, not new shorts piling in). (55%) E1 E3 E8 E2
2.Lingering weakness from the 24h drawdown (-11%, against total crypto market cap -3.6%) and somewhat cooler sentiment (Fear & Greed 55, down from 64 a week ago). (30%) E1 E8 E9
3.No news, onchain or fundamental trigger for the STX move appears in the evidence. The underlying cause is unexplained. (50%) E10 E7

Onchain

There is no Stacks-chain data in the evidence. The only onchain item is Ethereum gas (base fee 0.06 gwei vs a 0.09 24h average, blocks 50% full), which is quiet and not relevant to STX. E7

Market context

Binance futures OI is $8.3M, down 2.58% in 1h and 4.77% in 4h. E3
Funding is negative on all three venues: Binance -0.0230%, OKX -0.0125%, Bybit -0.0052% per 8h. Shorts are paying, so derivatives lean bearish. Binance's all-account long/short ratio is 1.07. E4 E5
Liquidations were small: 9 positions worth $22.5K, all longs, the largest $14.5K. Not a liquidation cascade. E6
BTC -0.18% and ETH -0.65% over the window; total crypto market cap -3.64% in 24h; Fear & Greed 55 (Greed). E8 E9

What to watch

Whether STX holds the ~$0.3646 window low or keeps grinding down
Binance OI: still falling (deleveraging) or rising with negative funding (new shorts building)
Funding on Binance going deeper below -0.02%, a sign of crowded shorts and squeeze risk
Whether the STX/BTC gap persists if BTC moves
Any Stacks-specific news or onchain data not in this evidence

Caveats

Dollar volume is thin: about $196K/hour on Binance spot and only $8.3M OI, so modest orders can move price.
Spot data covers Binance only; other venues may carry most STX volume.
Taker buy/sell and top-trader positioning were unavailable (null).
There is no Stacks onchain, news or developer data; the catalyst cannot be identified from this evidence.
The CoinGecko summary line rounds high and low to $0.4; the actual range was $0.3646–$0.3799.

Evidence (11 items)

E1pricecoingecko:/coins/markets

STX $0.4 now; -4.04% over the window (high $0.4, low $0.4); 1h -2.6%, 24h -11.11%, 7d -9.08%; rank #96, market cap $683.5M, 24h volume $19.1M

data

{
 "ath": 3.86,
 "low": 0.364589,
 "high": 0.379927,
 "rank": 96,
 "as_of": "2026-10-17T13:16:00.000Z",
 "price": 0.364576,
 "path_15m": [
  {
   "t": "2026-10-17T11:15:00.000Z",
   "price": 0.379927
  },
  {
   "t": "2026-10-17T11:30:00.000Z",
   "price": 0.376574
  },
  {
   "t": "2026-10-17T11:45:00.000Z",
   "price": 0.375908
  },
  {
   "t": "2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z",
   "price": 0.375895
  },
  {
   "t": "2026-10-17T12:15:00.000Z",
   "price": 0.374524
  },
  {
   "t": "2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z",
   "price": 0.373953
  },
  {
   "t": "2026-10-17T12:45:00.000Z",
   "price": 0.372476
  },
  {
   "t": "2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z",
   "price": 0.367684
  },
  {
   "t": "2026-10-17T13:15:00.000Z",
   "price": 0.364589
  }
 ],
 "market_cap": 683527076,
 "volume_24h": 19077392,
 "change_1h_pct": -2.6023397280914304,
 "change_7d_pct": -9.082384861694381,
 "change_24h_pct": -11.11327,
 "window_return_pct": -4.04
}

E2spot_volumebinance:klines:1m

binance STX/USDT: $195.8K traded in the last hour vs a typical hour of $85.2K (2.3×); busiest minutes: 11:26 $41.5K (-0.212%), 13:03 $34.8K (-0.3%), 12:50 $31.9K (-0.458%), 12:56 $10.5K (-0.027%), 12:55 $9.2K (-0.27%)

data

{
 "ratio": 2.298692821286981,
 "venue": "binance",
 "symbol": "STX/USDT",
 "volume_1h_usd": 195811.76226,
 "busiest_minutes": [
  {
   "v": "41484.66123",
   "ts": "2026-10-17T11:26:00.000Z",
   "ret": "-0.212",
   "close": "0.3766"
  },
  {
   "v": "34778.25972",
   "ts": "2026-10-17T13:03:00.000Z",
   "ret": "-0.300",
   "close": "0.3658"
  },
  {
   "v": "31928.1051",
   "ts": "2026-10-17T12:50:00.000Z",
   "ret": "-0.458",
   "close": "0.3698"
  },
  {
   "v": "10492.88393",
   "ts": "2026-10-17T12:56:00.000Z",
   "ret": "-0.027",
   "close": "0.3687"
  },
  {
   "v": "9178.83501",
   "ts": "2026-10-17T12:55:00.000Z",
   "ret": "-0.270",
   "close": "0.369"
  }
 ],
 "volume_window_usd": 276446.23626,
 "median_hourly_24h_usd": 85183.96214
}

E3open_interestbinanceusdm:openInterestHist:5m

Binance futures open interest $8.3M: -2.58% vs 1h ago, -4.77% vs 4h ago

data

{
 "as_of": "2026-10-17T13:10:00.000Z",
 "change_1h_pct": -2.58,
 "change_4h_pct": -4.77,
 "open_interest_usd": 8329009.2576
}

E4fundingccxt:fetchFundingRates

Funding per 8h: binanceusdm -0.0230%, bybit -0.0052%, okx -0.0125% (positive = longs pay; ~0.01% is normal)

data

{
 "rates": [
  {
   "venue": "binanceusdm",
   "symbol": "STX/USDT:USDT",
   "funding_rate_pct": -0.022992
  },
  {
   "venue": "bybit",
   "symbol": "STX/USDT:USDT",
   "funding_rate_pct": -0.0052309999999999995
  },
  {
   "venue": "okx",
   "symbol": "STX/USDT:USDT",
   "funding_rate_pct": -0.012491220070910001
  }
 ]
}

E5positioningbinanceusdm:futuresSentiment:5m
Binance positioning: all accounts long/short 1.07, top traders by position undefined, taker buy/sell undefined (>1 = net buying)
data
```
{
 "as_of": "2026-10-17T13:15:00.000Z",
 "taker_buy_sell": null,
 "global_long_short": 1.0678,
 "top_account_long_short": null,
 "top_position_long_short": null
}
```
E6liquidationsokx+binance:liquidations
9 forced liquidations worth $22.5K in the window: $22.5K longs, $0 shorts; largest $14.5K
data
```
{
 "count": 9,
 "longs_usd": 22513.9362,
 "total_usd": 22513.9362,
 "shorts_usd": 0,
 "largest_usd": 14544.09
}
```

E7network_feesnownodes:eth:eth_feeHistory

ETH base fee 0.06 gwei (24h average 0.09), blocks 50% full

data

{
 "as_of": "2026-10-17T13:17:00.000Z",
 "chain": "eth",
 "base_fee_gwei": 0.05883410788,
 "gas_used_ratio": 0.5019003811714018,
 "avg_base_fee_24h_gwei": 0.09435128400125001,
 "priority_fee_p50_gwei": 0.014143990720000004
}

E8market_contextcoingecko:/coins/markets+/global

Market: BTC -0.18% and ETH -0.65% over the same window; total crypto market cap -3.64% in 24h; categories: Infrastructure, Smart Contract Platform, Layer 2 (L2), Bitcoin Sidechains

data

{
 "trending": false,
 "categories": [
  "Infrastructure",
  "Smart Contract Platform",
  "Layer 2 (L2)",
  "Bitcoin Sidechains",
  "Stacks Ecosystem",
  "SideChain",
  "GMCI Layer 2 Index",
  "GMCI 30 Index",
  "Blockchain Capital Portfolio",
  "GMCI Index",
  "Made in USA",
  "Coinbase 50 Index",
  "CoinList Launchpad"
 ],
 "btc_change_24h_pct": -0.67038,
 "btc_window_return_pct": -0.18,
 "eth_window_return_pct": -0.65,
 "global_market_cap_change_24h_pct": -3.639722490826646
}

E9market_moodalternative.me:/fng

Crypto Fear & Greed index 55 (Greed) today, 64 a week ago

data

{
 "day": "2026-10-17T00:00:00.000Z",
 "value": 55,
 "week_ago": 64,
 "classification": "Greed"
}

E10dev_and_communitycoingecko:/coins/{id}

developer activity: not tracked by CoinGecko for this coin; CoinGecko sentiment 100% positive (as of 2026-10-17)

data

{
 "as_of": "2026-10-17T00:00:45.493Z",
 "forks": null,
 "stars": null,
 "commits_4w": null,
 "prs_merged": null,
 "sentiment_up_pct": 100,
 "twitter_followers": null,
 "reddit_subscribers": null
}

E11signalscoingraph:signals

Triggered by: price_move (down, medium) at 13:06; price_move (down, medium) at 13:15

data

{
 "signals": [
  {
   "id": "113766",
   "kind": "price_move",
   "ratio": 3.35,
   "value": -3.141,
   "details": {
    "z_1h": 3.35,
    "price": 0.364862,
    "ret_1h_pct": -3.141,
    "ret_15m_pct": -1.659
   },
   "baseline": 0.958,
   "event_ts": "2026-10-17T13:06:00.000Z",
   "severity": 2,
   "direction": "down"
  },
  {
   "id": "113813",
   "kind": "price_move",
   "ratio": 2.77,
   "value": -2.653,
   "details": {
    "z_1h": 2.77,
    "price": 0.364589,
    "ret_1h_pct": -2.653,
    "ret_15m_pct": -0.842
   },
   "baseline": 0.976,
   "event_ts": "2026-10-17T13:15:00.000Z",
   "severity": 2,
   "direction": "down"
  }
 ]
}