Quant · QNT

QNT -3% in ~15 min to $192.8 on 3.9× Binance volume; OI -3.2%, no onchain trigger

bearishseverity 2/3confidence 55%donescore 9.0opened 2026-10-17 21:31 UTCclaude-opus-5-5

QNT held flat near $199 for most of the window, then fell about 3% between 21:15 and 21:31 UTC to $192.8. The drop came with a sharp volume spike on Binance spot and a 3.2% fall in futures open interest, so leveraged positions were being cut. Onchain exchange flows were normal and BTC/ETH barely moved, so no clear catalyst shows up in the evidence. The drop extends a 7-day decline of 19.7%.

What happened

Price traded in a tight $198.8–$199.5 range from 19:30 to 21:15, then fell to $194.26 by 21:30 and $192.83 by 21:33. That is -3.01% over the window, -3.34% over 1h and -5.21% over 24h. E1
Binance QNT/USDT traded $1.2M in the last hour, against a typical hour of $301.5K (3.9×). The biggest minute was 21:29, with $371.3K traded and a -0.458% move. Other heavy minutes at 21:25, 21:26 and 21:31 were mostly down. E2
CoinGraph signals fired a 15-minute volume spike of $807.6K against a $68.1K median (11.9×). Two downside price-move signals followed at 21:29 and 21:31, with 15-minute returns of about -2.3% and -2.5% (z ≈ 3.8–3.9). E16
Binance futures open interest fell to $29.3M, down 3.24% vs 1h ago and 2.71% vs 4h ago. E3

Likely causes

1.Concentrated selling on Binance spot, together with long positions being closed or liquidated in futures. The sudden burst of volume and falling open interest point to deleveraging into the drop rather than new shorts being opened. (50%) E2 E3 E16 E4
2.Continuation of an existing downtrend. QNT is -19.7% over 7 days and broader crypto market cap is -2.97% in 24h, so sentiment was already weak. (35%) E1 E13 E14
3.No specific trigger found. The evidence includes no news, no large exchange deposit and no market-wide move that would explain why selling started at about 21:15. (60%) E6 E7 E13

Onchain

Ethereum: 455 QNT transfers worth $508.2K. Exchange inflows were $56.7K and outflows $74.4K, a net outflow of $17.8K. That is within the typical 15-minute net flow of $19.6K, so it shows no deposit-driven selling. E6
A 138.7 QNT ($27.6K) lot left Coinbase at 21:06 and was deposited to Binance at 21:14, shortly before the drop. It is small next to the $1.2M of Binance volume in the hour. E7
The largest transfer was $55.6K (286 QNT) at 21:27, between two very active addresses (likely exchange, contract or bot) that aren't labeled. The sender's QNT balance fell 7.4% in the window. A second established wallet sent $33.4K at 21:13, cutting its QNT balance by 16%. E7 E9 E10 E11
Known exchange wallets hold 626K QNT ($125M), of which Binance holds 612K (+0.06% in 24h). Coinbase is +4.78% and crypto.com -7.31%, but both are small. E8

Market context

QNT clearly underperformed the majors: BTC was -0.45% and ETH -0.74% over the same window. Total crypto market cap is -2.97% in 24h. E13
Funding is near neutral: Binance -0.0025%, Bybit 0.0092% per 8h. All Binance accounts lean slightly short (long/short 0.94), while top traders by position lean long (1.87). That leaves room for more long unwinds if top-trader longs exit. E4 E5
Fear & Greed is 55 (Greed), down from 64 a week ago. QNT is in CoinGecko's trending searches. E14 E13

What to watch

Whether Binance open interest keeps falling (more long unwind) or stabilises
Whether top-trader long/short (1.87) shrinks
Large QNT deposits to the Binance hot wallet 0x28c6…1d60
Whether Binance volume stays above about $300K/hour or price recovers $194–199
Any news explaining why QNT is trending

Caveats

E1 lists the window low as $194.26 (15-minute path) while the current price is $192.83, so the true low is at or below $192.8.
Binance taker buy/sell ratio was unavailable, so aggressive selling can't be confirmed directly.
Onchain data covers Ethereum transfers only. The large addresses aren't labeled, so their intent is unknown.
No news or social data in the evidence, so a news-driven cause can't be ruled out.

Evidence (16 items)

E1pricecoingecko:/coins/markets

QNT $192.8 now; -3.01% over the window (high $199.5, low $194.3); 1h -3.34%, 24h -5.21%, 7d -19.72%; rank #40, market cap $2.8B, 24h volume $49.7M

data

{
 "ath": 427.42,
 "low": 194.26,
 "high": 199.49,
 "rank": 40,
 "as_of": "2026-10-17T21:33:00.000Z",
 "price": 192.83,
 "path_15m": [
  {
   "t": "2026-10-17T19:30:00.000Z",
   "price": 198.81
  },
  {
   "t": "2026-10-17T19:45:00.000Z",
   "price": 198.85
  },
  {
   "t": "2026-10-17T20:00:00.000Z",
   "price": 198.98
  },
  {
   "t": "2026-10-17T20:15:00.000Z",
   "price": 199.49
  },
  {
   "t": "2026-10-17T20:30:00.000Z",
   "price": 199.38
  },
  {
   "t": "2026-10-17T20:45:00.000Z",
   "price": 199.3
  },
  {
   "t": "2026-10-17T21:00:00.000Z",
   "price": 199.39
  },
  {
   "t": "2026-10-17T21:15:00.000Z",
   "price": 198.78
  },
  {
   "t": "2026-10-17T21:30:00.000Z",
   "price": 194.26
  }
 ],
 "market_cap": 2809518822,
 "volume_24h": 49669542,
 "change_1h_pct": -3.3385132086821394,
 "change_7d_pct": -19.7210657785179,
 "change_24h_pct": -5.2121,
 "window_return_pct": -3.01
}

E2spot_volumebinance:klines:1m

binance QNT/USDT: $1.2M traded in the last hour vs a typical hour of $301.5K (3.9×); busiest minutes: 21:29 $371.3K (-0.458%), 21:25 $94.2K (-0.444%), 21:26 $86.2K (-0.092%), 21:28 $64.2K (+0.062%), 21:31 $62.1K (-0.444%)

data

{
 "ratio": 3.935946935267144,
 "venue": "binance",
 "symbol": "QNT/USDT",
 "volume_1h_usd": 1186698.71774,
 "busiest_minutes": [
  {
   "v": "371259.55471",
   "ts": "2026-10-17T21:29:00.000Z",
   "ret": "-0.458",
   "close": "193.46"
  },
  {
   "v": "94192.33645",
   "ts": "2026-10-17T21:25:00.000Z",
   "ret": "-0.444",
   "close": "195.1"
  },
  {
   "v": "86201.66935",
   "ts": "2026-10-17T21:26:00.000Z",
   "ret": "-0.092",
   "close": "194.87"
  },
  {
   "v": "64222.65735",
   "ts": "2026-10-17T21:28:00.000Z",
   "ret": "0.062",
   "close": "194.26"
  },
  {
   "v": "62099.73783",
   "ts": "2026-10-17T21:31:00.000Z",
   "ret": "-0.444",
   "close": "192.87"
  }
 ],
 "volume_window_usd": 1288046.2336,
 "median_hourly_24h_usd": 301502.72279
}

E3open_interestbinanceusdm:openInterestHist:5m

Binance futures open interest $29.3M: -3.24% vs 1h ago, -2.71% vs 4h ago

data

{
 "as_of": "2026-10-17T21:30:00.000Z",
 "change_1h_pct": -3.24,
 "change_4h_pct": -2.71,
 "open_interest_usd": 29283481.90068686
}

E4fundingccxt:fetchFundingRates

Funding per 8h: binanceusdm -0.0025%, bybit 0.0092% (positive = longs pay; ~0.01% is normal)

data

{
 "rates": [
  {
   "venue": "binanceusdm",
   "symbol": "QNT/USDT:USDT",
   "funding_rate_pct": -0.002514
  },
  {
   "venue": "bybit",
   "symbol": "QNT/USDT:USDT",
   "funding_rate_pct": 0.009221
  }
 ]
}

E5positioningbinanceusdm:futuresSentiment:5m
Binance positioning: all accounts long/short 0.94, top traders by position 1.87, taker buy/sell undefined (>1 = net buying)
data
```
{
 "as_of": "2026-10-17T21:25:00.000Z",
 "taker_buy_sell": null,
 "global_long_short": 0.9391,
 "top_account_long_short": 1.0995,
 "top_position_long_short": 1.874
}
```

E6exchange_flowsnownodes:eth:eth_getLogs

Onchain (ETH): 455 transfers worth $508.2K in the window; $56.7K moved onto exchanges, $74.4K left exchanges → net outflow of $17.8K (typical 15-min |net| $19.6K)

data

{
 "chain": "eth",
 "transfers": 455,
 "volume_usd": 508221.3773394935,
 "large_transfers": 4,
 "exchange_net_usd": -17763.54687592148,
 "exchange_inflow_usd": 56685.99976152472,
 "exchange_outflow_usd": 74449.5466374462,
 "median_volume_15m_7d": 196588.3152643,
 "median_abs_net_15m_7d": 19601.342603842
}

E7large_transfersnownodes:onchain_transfers

4 largest transfers in the window: $55.6K other at 21:27; $33.4K other at 21:13; $27.6K → binance at 21:14; $27.6K ← coinbase at 21:06

data

{
 "transfers": [
  {
   "to": "0x8afd8542540a2c5ce26d01ac3ae6cc1e9c32568f",
   "ts": "2026-10-17T21:27:35.000Z",
   "from": "0xf8191d98ae98d2f7abdfb63a9b0b812b93c873aa",
   "block": 26214960,
   "chain": "eth",
   "amount": 286,
   "tx_hash": "0xb91889fc1d4ecf7583506b824663417abb01a18d601c678459373ec0c892100e",
   "direction": "other",
   "to_entity": null,
   "amount_usd": 55558.36,
   "from_entity": null
  },
  {
   "to": "0x57483d84305357f22e293a55bb7ddc2798352d40",
   "ts": "2026-10-17T21:13:59.000Z",
   "from": "0xf97deb1c0bb4536ff16617d29e5f4b340fe231df",
   "block": 26214892,
   "chain": "eth",
   "amount": 167.9905,
   "tx_hash": "0x9c3b2adc14a84210d275fbe6d9c6e0160daac35a565031c09fc26d7a12ceb852",
   "direction": "other",
   "to_entity": null,
   "amount_usd": 33393.15159,
   "from_entity": null
  },
  {
   "to": "0x28c6c06298d514db089934071355e5743bf21d60",
   "ts": "2026-10-17T21:14:11.000Z",
   "from": "0x86a067030a9668c13ff2a8c4d5415afc776d4c63",
   "block": 26214893,
   "chain": "eth",
   "amount": 138.69946268,
   "tx_hash": "0xb9455ec68d83fdae177590bdaa1114f9da657565e5f01005c3cb937762edef00",
   "direction": "to_exchange",
   "to_entity": "binance",
   "amount_usd": 27570.679191530402,
   "from_entity": null
  },
  {
   "to": "0x86a067030a9668c13ff2a8c4d5415afc776d4c63",
   "ts": "2026-10-17T21:06:35.000Z",
   "from": "0xa9d1e08c7793af67e9d92fe308d5697fb81d3e43",
   "block": 26214855,
   "chain": "eth",
   "amount": 138.69946268,
   "tx_hash": "0x3465238e32c919ef17135d54b8cfbd5953d88977c2467bdeda453e9171852b02",
   "direction": "from_exchange",
   "to_entity": null,
   "amount_usd": 27570.679191530402,
   "from_entity": "coinbase"
  }
 ]
}

E8exchange_reservesnownodes:eth-blockbook:/address/{wallet}

Known exchange wallets hold 626K QNT ($125M): binance 612K (+0.06% vs 24h ago), gate 7.4K (-0.81% vs 24h ago), coinbase 5.5K (+4.78% vs 24h ago), crypto.com 973 (-7.31% vs 24h ago)

data

{
 "by_exchange": [
  {
   "entity": "binance",
   "balance": 612283.776867976,
   "balance_usd": 122187350.5117733,
   "change_24h_pct": 0.06
  },
  {
   "entity": "gate",
   "balance": 7435.620727076251,
   "balance_usd": 1483852.4722953364,
   "change_24h_pct": -0.81
  },
  {
   "entity": "coinbase",
   "balance": 5528.202907889973,
   "balance_usd": 1103208.1722985231,
   "change_24h_pct": 4.78
  },
  {
   "entity": "crypto.com",
   "balance": 972.5649376364229,
   "balance_usd": 194085.05895472455,
   "change_24h_pct": -7.31
  },
  {
   "entity": "kraken",
   "balance": 30.00001,
   "balance_usd": 5986.8019956,
   "change_24h_pct": 0
  },
  {
   "entity": "mexc",
   "balance": 0.02735623616319696,
   "balance_usd": 5.459210488727585,
   "change_24h_pct": 0
  },
  {
   "entity": "bybit",
   "balance": 0,
   "balance_usd": 0,
   "change_24h_pct": null
  },
  {
   "entity": "kucoin",
   "balance": 0,
   "balance_usd": 0,
   "change_24h_pct": null
  }
 ]
}

E9wallet_profilenownodes:eth-blockbook:/address/{wallet}

sender 0xf8191d98… ($55.6K transfer): very active (exchange, contract or bot), 297,415 transactions, holds 3.6K QNT now vs 3.9K at the start of the window (-7.4%), 5248.06 ETH

data

{
 "role": "sender",
 "address": "0xf8191d98ae98d2f7abdfb63a9b0b812b93c873aa",
 "profile": "very active (exchange, contract or bot)",
 "tx_count": 297415,
 "transfer_usd": 55558.36,
 "native_balance": 5248.061984397678,
 "token_balance_now": 3577.676456029296,
 "window_start_block": 26214451,
 "token_balance_window_start": 3863.676456029296
}

E10wallet_profilenownodes:eth-blockbook:/address/{wallet}

receiver 0x8afd8542… ($55.6K transfer): very active (exchange, contract or bot), 104,255 transactions, holds 286 QNT now vs 0 at the start of the window (n/a), 0.00 ETH

data

{
 "role": "receiver",
 "address": "0x8afd8542540a2c5ce26d01ac3ae6cc1e9c32568f",
 "profile": "very active (exchange, contract or bot)",
 "tx_count": 104255,
 "transfer_usd": 55558.36,
 "native_balance": 0.000022746705212234,
 "token_balance_now": 286,
 "window_start_block": 26214451,
 "token_balance_window_start": 0
}

E11wallet_profilenownodes:eth-blockbook:/address/{wallet}

sender 0xf97deb1c… ($33.4K transfer): established wallet, 93,066 transactions, holds 872 QNT now vs 1K at the start of the window (-16.16%), 15.11 ETH

data

{
 "role": "sender",
 "address": "0xf97deb1c0bb4536ff16617d29e5f4b340fe231df",
 "profile": "established wallet",
 "tx_count": 93066,
 "transfer_usd": 33393.15159,
 "native_balance": 15.114173726911723,
 "token_balance_now": 871.7158361750118,
 "window_start_block": 26214451,
 "token_balance_window_start": 1039.7063361750118
}

E12network_feesnownodes:eth:eth_feeHistory

ETH base fee 0.07 gwei (24h average 0.06), blocks 56% full

data

{
 "as_of": "2026-10-17T21:32:00.000Z",
 "chain": "eth",
 "base_fee_gwei": 0.06532291353333333,
 "gas_used_ratio": 0.5582802178036255,
 "avg_base_fee_24h_gwei": 0.06184458348666667,
 "priority_fee_p50_gwei": 0.1882396755066667
}

E13market_contextcoingecko:/coins/markets+/global

Market: BTC -0.45% and ETH -0.74% over the same window; total crypto market cap -2.97% in 24h; QNT is in CoinGecko's trending searches; categories: Infrastructure, Ethereum Ecosystem, Real World Assets (RWA), Energi Ecosystem

data

{
 "trending": true,
 "categories": [
  "Infrastructure",
  "Ethereum Ecosystem",
  "Real World Assets (RWA)",
  "Energi Ecosystem",
  "Coinbase 50 Index"
 ],
 "btc_change_24h_pct": -0.75394,
 "btc_window_return_pct": -0.45,
 "eth_window_return_pct": -0.74,
 "global_market_cap_change_24h_pct": -2.96731501288777
}

E14market_moodalternative.me:/fng

Crypto Fear & Greed index 55 (Greed) today, 64 a week ago

data

{
 "day": "2026-10-17T00:00:00.000Z",
 "value": 55,
 "week_ago": 64,
 "classification": "Greed"
}

E15dev_and_communitycoingecko:/coins/{id}

developer activity: not tracked by CoinGecko for this coin; CoinGecko sentiment 95% positive (as of 2026-10-17)

data

{
 "as_of": "2026-10-17T00:00:31.294Z",
 "forks": null,
 "stars": null,
 "commits_4w": null,
 "prs_merged": null,
 "sentiment_up_pct": 95,
 "twitter_followers": null,
 "reddit_subscribers": null
}

E16signalscoingraph:signals

Triggered by: volume_spike (neutral, high) at 21:30; price_move (down, medium) at 21:29; price_move (down, medium) at 21:31

data

{
 "signals": [
  {
   "id": "115564",
   "kind": "volume_spike",
   "ratio": 11.87,
   "value": 807637,
   "details": {
    "median_15m_24h": 68056,
    "volume_usd_15m": 807637
   },
   "baseline": 68056,
   "event_ts": "2026-10-17T21:30:54.730Z",
   "severity": 3,
   "direction": "neutral"
  },
  {
   "id": "115513",
   "kind": "price_move",
   "ratio": 3.76,
   "value": -2.71,
   "details": {
    "z_1h": 3.76,
    "price": 194.19,
    "ret_1h_pct": -2.71,
    "ret_15m_pct": -2.299
   },
   "baseline": 0.733,
   "event_ts": "2026-10-17T21:29:00.000Z",
   "severity": 2,
   "direction": "down"
  },
  {
   "id": "115555",
   "kind": "price_move",
   "ratio": 3.9,
   "value": -2.833,
   "details": {
    "z_1h": 3.9,
    "price": 193.78,
    "ret_1h_pct": -2.833,
    "ret_15m_pct": -2.501
   },
   "baseline": 0.74,
   "event_ts": "2026-10-17T21:31:00.000Z",
   "severity": 2,
   "direction": "down"
  }
 ]
}