Pepe · PEPE

PEPE drops ~2% in a 10-minute burst after 21:26 on 8.6× Binance volume; $274K longs liquidated

bearishseverity 2/3confidence 50%donescore 6.0opened 2026-10-17 21:35 UTCclaude-opus-5-5

PEPE held flat at about $0.00000391–0.00000392 for most of the window. Between roughly 21:26 and 21:35 it fell to $0.00000384, a window return of -1.79%, and CoinGraph flagged a -2.8% one-hour move at 21:40. The drop came with a heavy burst of Binance spot volume and $274K of liquidations, all of them longs. The wider market was soft at the same time, with ETH down 1.11% over the window. The evidence shows a sharp burst of selling, but no specific catalyst.

What happened

Price was flat near $0.00000391–0.00000392 from 19:30 to 21:15, then fell to $0.00000387 at 21:30 and $0.00000384 by the end of the window. That is -1.79% over the window, -0.78% over 1h and -4.92% over 24h. E1
CoinGraph signals: a price_move (down, severity 3) at 21:40, with a -2.81% 1h return, -2.31% over 15m, price $0.00000381 and z-score 5.55. A volume_spike followed at 21:44: $1.50M in 15 minutes against a $70K median, which is 21.4×. E17
Binance PEPE/USDT traded $2.8M in the last hour against a typical $331K (8.6×). The volume was packed into the drop: $339K at 21:32 (-0.26%), $120K at 21:29 (-0.78%) and $91K at 21:30 (+0.52%). E2
61 forced liquidations worth $274.1K hit during the window, all longs and no shorts. The largest was $86.7K. E6

Likely causes

1.A concentrated burst of spot selling on Binance starting around 21:26, with long liquidations adding to the drop. This is inferred from the volume spike lining up in time with the decline and the liquidations being entirely long. (55%) E1 E2 E6 E17
2.Weak broader market and memecoin sentiment: ETH -1.11% and BTC -0.34% over the window, total crypto market cap -3.33% in 24h, and Fear & Greed down from 64 to 55. PEPE fell more than BTC and ETH, so this explains only part of the move. (35%) E14 E15
3.Some PEPE was moved onto exchanges before the drop, for a net inflow of $248.6K on ETH. That amount is small next to $131M of 24h volume. Also, one of the larger flows near the drop was an $85.1K withdrawal from Binance, so onchain flows are at best a minor factor. (20%) E7 E8 E1
4.The evidence contains no news or fundamental trigger for why the selling began at 21:26. (50%) E16

Onchain

ETH chain: 630 transfers worth $2.7M during the window. $611.4K went onto exchanges and $362.8K left them, for a net inflow of $248.6K. The 7-day baseline for net flow is $0, so the inflow cannot be compared against a normal level. E7
Two-hop deposits into Binance's 0x28c6… wallet: $42.1K at 19:30 and $37.0K at 20:42. Going the other way, $85.1K left Binance at 21:28, during the drop. E8
Very active wallet 0xefef30bd… (123K transactions, unlabeled) cut its holdings from 3.5T to 3.3T PEPE (-6.49%), including a $107.4K transfer at 21:33 to an unlabeled address. The largest transfer was $212.6K at 19:26, between an established wallet and a very active one, with no change to the receiver's balance at window start. E8 E10 E11 E12
Known exchange wallets hold 77T PEPE ($295.7M). Binance's balance is up 0.39% and Coinbase's up 0.58% over 24h, while Gate's is down 3.74%. E9
ETH gas is quiet: 0.06 gwei base fee, the same as the 24h average, with blocks 50% full. E13

Market context

Derivatives: Binance open interest is $69.2M, down 0.48% over 1h and 1.92% over 4h. Funding is negative everywhere: Binance -0.031%, OKX -0.008%, Bybit -0.002% per 8h. Shorts are paying, but accounts are still net long (global long/short 1.86, top traders by position 1.49). E3 E4 E5
Broader market: BTC -0.34% and ETH -1.11% over the window, total crypto market cap -3.33% in 24h. PEPE is not trending. Fear & Greed is 55 (Greed), down from 64 a week ago. CoinGecko sentiment is 86% positive. E14 E15 E16

What to watch

Whether price holds around $0.00000381–0.00000384 or slips further. The 21:40 signal price was $0.00000381.
More long liquidations, given accounts remain net long (1.86 long/short)
Binance funding moving further below zero alongside rising open interest, which would mean new shorts are building
Whether Binance volume drops back toward its ~$331K/hour median
Further deposits to exchanges from 0xefef30bd… and from wallets that route into Binance 0x28c6…

Caveats

The CoinGecko window high and low ($0.00000392 / $0.00000387) conflict with the current price of $0.00000384, so treat the exact range as approximate.
The 7-day baseline for exchange net flow is $0, so the size of the $248.6K inflow cannot be judged against a normal level.
The Binance taker buy/sell ratio is missing, so aggressor direction is inferred from returns in the busiest minutes, not measured.
The evidence contains no news or catalyst. Why the selling started at 21:26 is unexplained.
Many large wallets are unlabeled. Very active addresses may be exchanges, market makers or bots, so their flows may not reflect directional intent.

Evidence (17 items)

E1pricecoingecko:/coins/markets

PEPE $0 now; -1.79% over the window (high $0, low $0); 1h -0.78%, 24h -4.92%, 7d -4.95%; rank #63, market cap $1.6B, 24h volume $131M

data

{
 "ath": 0.00002803,
 "low": 0.00000387,
 "high": 0.00000392,
 "rank": 63,
 "as_of": "2026-10-17T22:29:00.000Z",
 "price": 0.00000384,
 "path_15m": [
  {
   "t": "2026-10-17T19:30:00.000Z",
   "price": 0.00000391
  },
  {
   "t": "2026-10-17T19:45:00.000Z",
   "price": 0.00000391
  },
  {
   "t": "2026-10-17T20:00:00.000Z",
   "price": 0.00000392
  },
  {
   "t": "2026-10-17T20:15:00.000Z",
   "price": 0.00000392
  },
  {
   "t": "2026-10-17T20:30:00.000Z",
   "price": 0.00000391
  },
  {
   "t": "2026-10-17T20:45:00.000Z",
   "price": 0.00000392
  },
  {
   "t": "2026-10-17T21:00:00.000Z",
   "price": 0.00000392
  },
  {
   "t": "2026-10-17T21:15:00.000Z",
   "price": 0.00000392
  },
  {
   "t": "2026-10-17T21:30:00.000Z",
   "price": 0.00000387
  }
 ],
 "market_cap": 1616817509,
 "volume_24h": 131041650,
 "change_1h_pct": -0.7751937984496124,
 "change_7d_pct": -4.9504950495049505,
 "change_24h_pct": -4.92052,
 "window_return_pct": -1.79
}

E2spot_volumebinance:klines:1m

binance PEPE/USDT: $2.8M traded in the last hour vs a typical hour of $330.8K (8.6×); busiest minutes: 21:32 $339.1K (-0.26%), 21:29 $120.4K (-0.775%), 21:30 $91.4K (+0.521%), 21:26 $77.7K (0%), 19:43 $76.4K (0%)

data

{
 "ratio": 8.586167296456361,
 "venue": "binance",
 "symbol": "PEPE/USDT",
 "volume_1h_usd": 2840480.75406141,
 "busiest_minutes": [
  {
   "v": "339077.84025998",
   "ts": "2026-10-17T21:32:00.000Z",
   "ret": "-0.260",
   "close": "0.00000384"
  },
  {
   "v": "120408.5008336",
   "ts": "2026-10-17T21:29:00.000Z",
   "ret": "-0.775",
   "close": "0.00000384"
  },
  {
   "v": "91420.95866777",
   "ts": "2026-10-17T21:30:00.000Z",
   "ret": "0.521",
   "close": "0.00000386"
  },
  {
   "v": "77696.47094075",
   "ts": "2026-10-17T21:26:00.000Z",
   "ret": "0.000",
   "close": "0.00000388"
  },
  {
   "v": "76382.39552323",
   "ts": "2026-10-17T19:43:00.000Z",
   "ret": "0.000",
   "close": "0.00000392"
  }
 ],
 "volume_window_usd": 1487186.82685472,
 "median_hourly_24h_usd": 330820.56940979
}

E3open_interestbinanceusdm:openInterestHist:5m

Binance futures open interest $69.2M: -0.48% vs 1h ago, -1.92% vs 4h ago

data

{
 "as_of": "2026-10-17T22:25:00.000Z",
 "change_1h_pct": -0.48,
 "change_4h_pct": -1.92,
 "open_interest_usd": 69186263.94444008
}

E4fundingccxt:fetchFundingRates

Funding per 8h: binanceusdm -0.0312%, bybit -0.0023%, okx -0.0084% (positive = longs pay; ~0.01% is normal)

data

{
 "rates": [
  {
   "venue": "binanceusdm",
   "symbol": "1000PEPE/USDT:USDT",
   "funding_rate_pct": -0.031214
  },
  {
   "venue": "bybit",
   "symbol": "1000PEPE/USDT:USDT",
   "funding_rate_pct": -0.002328
  },
  {
   "venue": "okx",
   "symbol": "PEPE/USDT:USDT",
   "funding_rate_pct": -0.00839169931558
  }
 ]
}

E5positioningbinanceusdm:futuresSentiment:5m
Binance positioning: all accounts long/short 1.86, top traders by position 1.49, taker buy/sell undefined (>1 = net buying)
data
```
{
 "as_of": "2026-10-17T22:20:00.000Z",
 "taker_buy_sell": null,
 "global_long_short": 1.8612,
 "top_account_long_short": 2.2658,
 "top_position_long_short": 1.4942
}
```
E6liquidationsokx+binance:liquidations
61 forced liquidations worth $274.1K in the window: $274.1K longs, $0 shorts; largest $86.7K
data
```
{
 "count": 61,
 "longs_usd": 274085.233,
 "total_usd": 274085.233,
 "shorts_usd": 0,
 "largest_usd": 86675.056
}
```

E7exchange_flowsnownodes:eth:eth_getLogs

Onchain (ETH): 630 transfers worth $2.7M in the window; $611.4K moved onto exchanges, $362.8K left exchanges → net inflow of $248.6K (typical 15-min |net| $0)

data

{
 "chain": "eth",
 "transfers": 630,
 "volume_usd": 2651146.5392804407,
 "large_transfers": 36,
 "exchange_net_usd": 248573.44271667465,
 "exchange_inflow_usd": 611414.1777513258,
 "exchange_outflow_usd": 362840.7350346511,
 "median_volume_15m_7d": 8319.44782264924,
 "median_abs_net_15m_7d": 0
}

E8large_transfersnownodes:onchain_transfers

12 largest transfers in the window: $212.6K other at 19:26; $107.4K other at 21:33; $85.1K ← binance at 21:28; $76K other at 19:46; $76K other at 19:48

data

{
 "transfers": [
  {
   "to": "0x9b0c45d46d386cedd98873168c36efd0dcba8d46",
   "ts": "2026-10-17T19:26:19.712Z",
   "from": "0x700e0841ce0892969d2f9cf523c6298b3ef056a6",
   "block": 26214358,
   "chain": "eth",
   "amount": 54505029995.26,
   "tx_hash": "0x0ae5e7808cc601c1e73c7cac533f60b4d17bca57ac1ad9077f1aa3ff12ca1520",
   "direction": "other",
   "to_entity": null,
   "amount_usd": 212569.616981514,
   "from_entity": null
  },
  {
   "to": "0xe6026f60efc3d0e714f1b89c596aa484ffbd25c8",
   "ts": "2026-10-17T21:33:00.972Z",
   "from": "0xefef30bd1cca520619306c95091ab18473febc5c",
   "block": 26214987,
   "chain": "eth",
   "amount": 28037486875.8433,
   "tx_hash": "0xc2757d5f9c07259da6633a07da104bb48d8edb163fa3942862c1328c53c6969c",
   "direction": "other",
   "to_entity": null,
   "amount_usd": 107383.57473447983,
   "from_entity": null
  },
  {
   "to": "0x680dd69ef0154978f785c15e9139437eac255dfa",
   "ts": "2026-10-17T21:28:59.000Z",
   "from": "0x21a31ee1afc51d94c2efccaa2092ad1028285549",
   "block": 26214967,
   "chain": "eth",
   "amount": 21999759157,
   "tx_hash": "0x023272e2a5d132f09dc2522cf12520a93c1e0c60048aa7b866d20a6fc17edd48",
   "direction": "from_exchange",
   "to_entity": null,
   "amount_usd": 85139.06793759,
   "from_entity": "binance"
  },
  {
   "to": "0x000e20a2eefa97815f3f5057fcd8920acf1ae0de",
   "ts": "2026-10-17T19:46:59.000Z",
   "from": "0xefef30bd1cca520619306c95091ab18473febc5c",
   "block": 26214458,
   "chain": "eth",
   "amount": 19389091052.3,
   "tx_hash": "0x9ff1ada0448b7b2c08ab35897a911eb313e0e6dbde950ec0ff0b25b6a3a4d36f",
   "direction": "other",
   "to_entity": null,
   "amount_usd": 76005.236925016,
   "from_entity": null
  },
  {
   "to": "0xf3d8f38c01af8a7506fcf771bb04bae3365adc2c",
   "ts": "2026-10-17T19:48:47.000Z",
   "from": "0x000e20a2eefa97815f3f5057fcd8920acf1ae0de",
   "block": 26214467,
   "chain": "eth",
   "amount": 19389091052.3,
   "tx_hash": "0x0971fefc08965d64366e01f6c12ff668d029e5b00e166d26a79f2b0d6c87dd4f",
   "direction": "other",
   "to_entity": null,
   "amount_usd": 76005.236925016,
   "from_entity": null
  },
  {
   "to": "0xb0a27099582833c0cb8c7a0565759ff145113d64",
   "ts": "2026-10-17T20:48:00.391Z",
   "from": "0x4a4aaa0155237881fbd5c34bfae16e985a7b068d",
   "block": 26214763,
   "chain": "eth",
   "amount": 16420609709.87,
   "tx_hash": "0x4c2aaf875eb00efc476a4df3d5241f4c683c26be9ae2fafb8d53e44cd0efaa02",
   "direction": "other",
   "to_entity": null,
   "amount_usd": 64368.7900626904,
   "from_entity": null
  },
  {
   "to": "0xf30ca446b32d4c7f40d1d44ce3d66d626425005b",
   "ts": "2026-10-17T21:34:38.287Z",
   "from": "0x4a4aaa0155237881fbd5c34bfae16e985a7b068d",
   "block": 26214995,
   "chain": "eth",
   "amount": 11100000890,
   "tx_hash": "0x1a3fddc5343409fcb98f6e899f2f1fcbcbf7906b24b3b05677aa1debfbfeea81",
   "direction": "other",
   "to_entity": null,
   "amount_usd": 42513.003408699995,
   "from_entity": null
  },
  {
   "to": "0xeae7380dd4cef6fbd1144f49e4d1e6964258a4f4",
   "ts": "2026-10-17T19:22:16.424Z",
   "from": "0xefef30bd1cca520619306c95091ab18473febc5c",
   "block": 26214338,
   "chain": "eth",
   "amount": 10803815176,
   "tx_hash": "0xa1d88f734f3b90d781307a2fe0dd04c1421b17fa87a05961c5a8dd2c3eb9a2d5",
   "direction": "other",
   "to_entity": null,
   "amount_usd": 42134.8791864,
   "from_entity": null
  },
  {
   "to": "0x28c6c06298d514db089934071355e5743bf21d60",
   "ts": "2026-10-17T19:30:10.835Z",
   "from": "0xeae7380dd4cef6fbd1144f49e4d1e6964258a4f4",
   "block": 26214377,
   "chain": "eth",
   "amount": 10803815176,
   "tx_hash": "0xc09295cec6ee8e8f2dfde42ea0e297b435979d7aee004888b426eec6fc573a81",
   "direction": "to_exchange",
   "to_entity": "binance",
   "amount_usd": 42134.8791864,
   "from_entity": null
  },
  {
   "to": "0x92ea7496eba5f001d620005f88f3e8e686e3d4ea",
   "ts": "2026-10-17T20:47:48.217Z",
   "from": "0xbf90664017218ac7d9db5ae0c84873628e9ae1ae",
   "block": 26214762,
   "chain": "eth",
   "amount": 10011738432.89,
   "tx_hash": "0x511c296300dd28fbf316bdb7e4982fbd70b0125b9a9b97a40cf47785cbc7ed31",
   "direction": "other",
   "to_entity": null,
   "amount_usd": 39246.0146569288,
   "from_entity": null
  },
  {
   "to": "0x41fbba5cb38d22b2d80606406944cedd7c97f6f9",
   "ts": "2026-10-17T20:38:11.000Z",
   "from": "0xed9ab5bc05a0152b9dc2f7902e8369af7bc18771",
   "block": 26214714,
   "chain": "eth",
   "amount": 9428460301.410002,
   "tx_hash": "0xeef07a3708729a090fac70b9a999be82164cabc020e85fbf23a0fa0dd0373e1b",
   "direction": "other",
   "to_entity": null,
   "amount_usd": 36959.564381527205,
   "from_entity": null
  },
  {
   "to": "0x28c6c06298d514db089934071355e5743bf21d60",
   "ts": "2026-10-17T20:42:59.000Z",
   "from": "0x41fbba5cb38d22b2d80606406944cedd7c97f6f9",
   "block": 26214738,
   "chain": "eth",
   "amount": 9428460301.410002,
   "tx_hash": "0x60af41f69b8639418920fa9292ab9c07bcde565e8d042b14561fd330f79c2fc7",
   "direction": "to_exchange",
   "to_entity": "binance",
   "amount_usd": 36959.564381527205,
   "from_entity": null
  }
 ]
}

E9exchange_reservesnownodes:eth-blockbook:/address/{wallet}

Known exchange wallets hold 77T PEPE ($295.7M): binance 68T (+0.39% vs 24h ago), robinhood 5.1T (0% vs 24h ago), bybit 2.3T (0% vs 24h ago), coinbase 735B (+0.58% vs 24h ago)

data

{
 "by_exchange": [
  {
   "entity": "binance",
   "balance": 68245832803998.91,
   "balance_usd": 262746456.29539582,
   "change_24h_pct": 0.39
  },
  {
   "entity": "robinhood",
   "balance": 5056978137620.335,
   "balance_usd": 19469365.82983829,
   "change_24h_pct": 0
  },
  {
   "entity": "bybit",
   "balance": 2276410818009.2046,
   "balance_usd": 8764181.649335438,
   "change_24h_pct": 0
  },
  {
   "entity": "coinbase",
   "balance": 734688208550.4667,
   "balance_usd": 2828549.602919297,
   "change_24h_pct": 0.58
  },
  {
   "entity": "gate",
   "balance": 304948711684.2911,
   "balance_usd": 1174052.5399845208,
   "change_24h_pct": -3.74
  },
  {
   "entity": "bitfinex",
   "balance": 125552791259.34213,
   "balance_usd": 483378.24634846725,
   "change_24h_pct": 0
  },
  {
   "entity": "crypto.com",
   "balance": 52233050766.17793,
   "balance_usd": 201097.24544978506,
   "change_24h_pct": -0.99
  },
  {
   "entity": "kraken",
   "balance": 47646278.124453254,
   "balance_usd": 183.43817077914505,
   "change_24h_pct": 0
  }
 ]
}

E10wallet_profilenownodes:eth-blockbook:/address/{wallet}

sender 0x700e0841… ($212.6K transfer): established wallet, 61,556 transactions, holds 1.9T PEPE now vs 1.9T at the start of the window (+0.74%), 49.69 ETH

data

{
 "role": "sender",
 "address": "0x700e0841ce0892969d2f9cf523c6298b3ef056a6",
 "profile": "established wallet",
 "tx_count": 61556,
 "transfer_usd": 212569.616981514,
 "native_balance": 49.69291802154549,
 "token_balance_now": 1942714664403.1096,
 "window_start_block": 26214449,
 "token_balance_window_start": 1928517249063.3245
}

E11wallet_profilenownodes:eth-blockbook:/address/{wallet}

receiver 0x9b0c45d4… ($212.6K transfer): very active (exchange, contract or bot), 100,818 transactions, holds 3.6T PEPE now vs 3.6T at the start of the window (0%), 11452.21 ETH

data

{
 "role": "receiver",
 "address": "0x9b0c45d46d386cedd98873168c36efd0dcba8d46",
 "profile": "very active (exchange, contract or bot)",
 "tx_count": 100818,
 "transfer_usd": 212569.616981514,
 "native_balance": 11452.206683854942,
 "token_balance_now": 3559833558247.1514,
 "window_start_block": 26214449,
 "token_balance_window_start": 3559833558247.1514
}

E12wallet_profilenownodes:eth-blockbook:/address/{wallet}

sender 0xefef30bd… ($107.4K transfer): very active (exchange, contract or bot), 123,268 transactions, holds 3.3T PEPE now vs 3.5T at the start of the window (-6.49%), 41.02 ETH

data

{
 "role": "sender",
 "address": "0xefef30bd1cca520619306c95091ab18473febc5c",
 "profile": "very active (exchange, contract or bot)",
 "tx_count": 123268,
 "transfer_usd": 107383.57473447983,
 "native_balance": 41.02183139205145,
 "token_balance_now": 3298498089813.9297,
 "window_start_block": 26214449,
 "token_balance_window_start": 3527459940059.994
}

E13network_feesnownodes:eth:eth_feeHistory

ETH base fee 0.06 gwei (24h average 0.06), blocks 50% full

data

{
 "as_of": "2026-10-17T22:17:00.000Z",
 "chain": "eth",
 "base_fee_gwei": 0.061069469493333334,
 "gas_used_ratio": 0.49646298342140444,
 "avg_base_fee_24h_gwei": 0.06291870759888889,
 "priority_fee_p50_gwei": 0.027031968000000014
}

E14market_contextcoingecko:/coins/markets+/global

Market: BTC -0.34% and ETH -1.11% over the same window; total crypto market cap -3.33% in 24h; categories: BNB Chain Ecosystem, Avalanche Ecosystem, Meme, Arbitrum Ecosystem

data

{
 "trending": false,
 "categories": [
  "BNB Chain Ecosystem",
  "Avalanche Ecosystem",
  "Meme",
  "Arbitrum Ecosystem",
  "Ethereum Ecosystem",
  "Frog-Themed",
  "GMCI Meme Index",
  "GMCI Index",
  "The Boy’s Club",
  "4chan-Themed"
 ],
 "btc_change_24h_pct": -0.6349,
 "btc_window_return_pct": -0.34,
 "eth_window_return_pct": -1.11,
 "global_market_cap_change_24h_pct": -3.328220548065851
}

E15market_moodalternative.me:/fng

Crypto Fear & Greed index 55 (Greed) today, 64 a week ago

data

{
 "day": "2026-10-17T00:00:00.000Z",
 "value": 55,
 "week_ago": 64,
 "classification": "Greed"
}

E16dev_and_communitycoingecko:/coins/{id}

developer activity: not tracked by CoinGecko for this coin; CoinGecko sentiment 86% positive (as of 2026-10-17)

data

{
 "as_of": "2026-10-17T00:00:37.105Z",
 "forks": null,
 "stars": null,
 "commits_4w": null,
 "prs_merged": null,
 "sentiment_up_pct": 85.71,
 "twitter_followers": null,
 "reddit_subscribers": null
}

E17signalscoingraph:signals

Triggered by: price_move (down, high) at 21:40; volume_spike (neutral, high) at 21:44

data

{
 "signals": [
  {
   "id": "115595",
   "kind": "price_move",
   "ratio": 5.55,
   "value": -2.806,
   "details": {
    "z_1h": 5.55,
    "price": 0.00000381,
    "ret_1h_pct": -2.806,
    "ret_15m_pct": -2.308
   },
   "baseline": 0.514,
   "event_ts": "2026-10-17T21:40:00.000Z",
   "severity": 3,
   "direction": "down"
  },
  {
   "id": "115721",
   "kind": "volume_spike",
   "ratio": 21.37,
   "value": 1497876,
   "details": {
    "median_15m_24h": 70090,
    "volume_usd_15m": 1497876
   },
   "baseline": 70090,
   "event_ts": "2026-10-17T21:44:59.544Z",
   "severity": 3,
   "direction": "neutral"
  }
 ]
}