Mantle · MNT

MNT -1.05% to $0.525 in a late-window drop, tracking ETH -1.16%; thin volume

bearishseverity 1/3confidence 55%donescore 6.0opened 2026-10-17 21:47 UTCclaude-opus-5-5

MNT held flat near $0.531 for most of the window, then fell about 1.3% between 21:30 and 21:45 UTC to a low of $0.5248. Most of the drop came in one Bybit minute (21:37, $134K traded, -0.63%). The move roughly matches ETH (-1.16%) in a weak market. Onchain exchange inflows were small ($16.8K), and by 23:34 the price had recovered a little to $0.5264.

What happened

MNT fell 1.05% over the window, from $0.532 to a low of $0.5248. The price sat between $0.5313 and $0.5316 until 21:15, then dropped to $0.5298 at 21:30 and $0.5248 at 21:45. E1
The busiest Bybit minute was 21:37: $134.2K traded and the price fell 0.626% to $0.5238. Next was 21:38 with $113.9K (+0.019%). Volume for the last hour was $154.7K, 1.2× a typical hour. E2
CoinGraph flagged two medium down price_move signals: at 21:42 (1h return -1.53%, z 3.82) and at 21:53 (1h return -1.51%, z 3.63). E11
As of 23:34 MNT was at $0.5264, flat over the prior hour. It is -1.77% over 24h and -7.43% over 7d. 24h volume was $18.7M and market cap $1.74B (rank #57). E1

Likely causes

1.Selling across the market, led by ETH. MNT's -1.05% is close to ETH's -1.16% over the same window, and total market cap is down 3.45% in 24h. (55%) E7 E1
2.One concentrated burst of selling on Bybit around 21:37 in thin liquidity. Hourly volume of only ~$155K means modest orders can move the price. The evidence does not show who was selling. (45%) E2
3.Small deposits to exchanges added light sell-side supply. The $16.8K net inflow is very small next to the $1.74B market cap and probably was not material. (20%) E4 E5

Onchain

On Ethereum: 54 MNT transfers worth $115.2K in the window. $16.8K moved onto exchanges and nothing left, a net inflow of $16.8K against a typical 15-min net of $0. There were no large transfers. E4
Known exchange wallets hold 3.2M MNT (about $1.7M). MEXC's balance rose 3% vs 24h ago to 1.1M MNT. Gate, Bitfinex and Coinbase were essentially unchanged. E5
Mantle Bridge TVL is $116.6M: -0.91% over 1d and -7.31% over 7d, in line with MNT's 7d drop. E9
ETH gas is quiet: base fee 0.03 gwei vs a 0.06 gwei 24h average, with blocks 50% full. E6

Market context

Over the window BTC fell 0.49% and ETH fell 1.16%. Total crypto market cap is down 3.45% in 24h, and MNT is not trending. E7
The Fear & Greed index is 55 (Greed), down from 64 a week ago, so sentiment is cooling. E8
Bybit perp funding is +0.0051% per 8h, below the ~0.01% norm. That points to no crowded long positioning or leverage stress. E3

What to watch

Whether MNT holds above the window low of $0.5248 or falls back below it
Whether ETH keeps weakening, since MNT has been moving with it
Further growth in MEXC's MNT balance, or larger exchange inflows
Bybit volume rising well above ~$131K/hour
Mantle Bridge TVL continuing its 7d decline

Caveats

The move is small (about 1%) and sits within normal market noise, despite the z-score signals.
Volume data covers Bybit only. MNT trading on other venues is not in the evidence.
There is no news or social evidence, so a coin-specific cause cannot be ruled in or out.
Exchange-wallet coverage is partial: the tracked Binance, Bybit and KuCoin wallets show near-zero balances, so exchange flows are probably undercounted.

Evidence (11 items)

E1pricecoingecko:/coins/markets

MNT $0.5 now; -1.05% over the window (high $0.5, low $0.5); 1h 0%, 24h -1.77%, 7d -7.43%; rank #57, market cap $1.7B, 24h volume $18.7M

data

{
 "ath": 2.86,
 "low": 0.524789,
 "high": 0.532002,
 "rank": 57,
 "as_of": "2026-10-17T23:34:00.000Z",
 "price": 0.526438,
 "path_15m": [
  {
   "t": "2026-10-17T19:45:00.000Z",
   "price": 0.532002
  },
  {
   "t": "2026-10-17T20:00:00.000Z",
   "price": 0.531369
  },
  {
   "t": "2026-10-17T20:15:00.000Z",
   "price": 0.531388
  },
  {
   "t": "2026-10-17T20:30:00.000Z",
   "price": 0.531474
  },
  {
   "t": "2026-10-17T20:45:00.000Z",
   "price": 0.531263
  },
  {
   "t": "2026-10-17T21:00:00.000Z",
   "price": 0.531462
  },
  {
   "t": "2026-10-17T21:15:00.000Z",
   "price": 0.5316
  },
  {
   "t": "2026-10-17T21:30:00.000Z",
   "price": 0.529834
  },
  {
   "t": "2026-10-17T21:45:00.000Z",
   "price": 0.524789
  }
 ],
 "market_cap": 1738298563,
 "volume_24h": 18688419,
 "change_1h_pct": -0.000949770440484535,
 "change_7d_pct": -7.426613982425691,
 "change_24h_pct": -1.77343,
 "window_return_pct": -1.05
}

E2spot_volumebybit:klines:1m

bybit MNT/USDT: $154.7K traded in the last hour vs a typical hour of $131K (1.2×); busiest minutes: 21:37 $134.2K (-0.626%), 21:38 $113.9K (+0.019%), 21:25 $50.4K (-0.264%), 21:31 $40.9K (-0.095%), 21:33 $22.9K (+0.019%)

data

{
 "ratio": 1.1811159906341715,
 "venue": "bybit",
 "symbol": "MNT/USDT",
 "volume_1h_usd": 154682.687475,
 "busiest_minutes": [
  {
   "v": "134151.30846",
   "ts": "2026-10-17T21:37:00.000Z",
   "ret": "-0.626",
   "close": "0.5238"
  },
  {
   "v": "113856.137902",
   "ts": "2026-10-17T21:38:00.000Z",
   "ret": "0.019",
   "close": "0.5239"
  },
  {
   "v": "50399.794530",
   "ts": "2026-10-17T21:25:00.000Z",
   "ret": "-0.264",
   "close": "0.5298"
  },
  {
   "v": "40899.638469",
   "ts": "2026-10-17T21:31:00.000Z",
   "ret": "-0.095",
   "close": "0.5279"
  },
  {
   "v": "22854.067864",
   "ts": "2026-10-17T21:33:00.000Z",
   "ret": "0.019",
   "close": "0.5273"
  }
 ],
 "volume_window_usd": 643059.171263,
 "median_hourly_24h_usd": 130963.164246
}

E3fundingccxt:fetchFundingRates

Funding per 8h: bybit 0.0051% (positive = longs pay; ~0.01% is normal)

data

{
 "rates": [
  {
   "venue": "bybit",
   "symbol": "MNT/USDT:USDT",
   "funding_rate_pct": 0.005059
  }
 ]
}

E4exchange_flowsnownodes:eth:eth_getLogs

Onchain (ETH): 54 transfers worth $115.2K in the window; $16.8K moved onto exchanges, $0 left exchanges → net inflow of $16.8K (typical 15-min |net| $0)

data

{
 "chain": "eth",
 "transfers": 54,
 "volume_usd": 115223.94653186007,
 "large_transfers": 0,
 "exchange_net_usd": 16793.248,
 "exchange_inflow_usd": 16793.248,
 "exchange_outflow_usd": 0,
 "median_volume_15m_7d": 3642.37589641509,
 "median_abs_net_15m_7d": 0
}

E5exchange_reservesnownodes:eth-blockbook:/address/{wallet}

Known exchange wallets hold 3.2M MNT ($1.7M): mexc 1.1M (+3% vs 24h ago), gate 741K (-0.09% vs 24h ago), bitfinex 706K (0% vs 24h ago), coinbase 675K (-0.08% vs 24h ago)

data

{
 "by_exchange": [
  {
   "entity": "mexc",
   "balance": 1098480.32692804,
   "balance_usd": 578753.0344075956,
   "change_24h_pct": 3
  },
  {
   "entity": "gate",
   "balance": 740658.3956756786,
   "balance_usd": 390228.46695445775,
   "change_24h_pct": -0.09
  },
  {
   "entity": "bitfinex",
   "balance": 706329.6730987645,
   "balance_usd": 372141.79587652674,
   "change_24h_pct": 0
  },
  {
   "entity": "coinbase",
   "balance": 674842.8431429934,
   "balance_usd": 355552.4242382195,
   "change_24h_pct": -0.08
  },
  {
   "entity": "binance",
   "balance": 18.42781629,
   "balance_usd": 9.70900828526343,
   "change_24h_pct": 0
  },
  {
   "entity": "kucoin",
   "balance": 0,
   "balance_usd": 0,
   "change_24h_pct": null
  },
  {
   "entity": "bybit",
   "balance": 0,
   "balance_usd": 0,
   "change_24h_pct": null
  }
 ]
}

E6network_feesnownodes:eth:eth_feeHistory

ETH base fee 0.03 gwei (24h average 0.06), blocks 50% full

data

{
 "as_of": "2026-10-17T23:32:00.000Z",
 "chain": "eth",
 "base_fee_gwei": 0.034886260186666664,
 "gas_used_ratio": 0.5046214272435858,
 "avg_base_fee_24h_gwei": 0.06191525835402778,
 "priority_fee_p50_gwei": 0.016334483759999997
}

E7market_contextcoingecko:/coins/markets+/global

Market: BTC -0.49% and ETH -1.16% over the same window; total crypto market cap -3.45% in 24h; categories: Smart Contract Platform, Ethereum Ecosystem, Layer 2 (L2), Mantle Ecosystem

data

{
 "trending": false,
 "categories": [
  "Smart Contract Platform",
  "Ethereum Ecosystem",
  "Layer 2 (L2)",
  "Mantle Ecosystem",
  "DWF Labs Portfolio",
  "DragonFly Capital Portfolio",
  "GMCI Layer 2 Index",
  "GMCI 30 Index",
  "GMCI Index",
  "World Liberty Financial Portfolio",
  "Made in China",
  "Neobank"
 ],
 "btc_change_24h_pct": -0.47126,
 "btc_window_return_pct": -0.49,
 "eth_window_return_pct": -1.16,
 "global_market_cap_change_24h_pct": -3.447097985473352
}

E8market_moodalternative.me:/fng

Crypto Fear & Greed index 55 (Greed) today, 64 a week ago

data

{
 "day": "2026-10-17T00:00:00.000Z",
 "value": 55,
 "week_ago": 64,
 "classification": "Greed"
}

E9protocol_tvldefillama:/protocols

Protocol TVL (DefiLlama): Mantle Bridge $116.6M (-0.91% 1d, -7.31% 7d)

data

{
 "protocols": [
  {
   "name": "Mantle Bridge",
   "tvl_usd": 116613103.47496621,
   "category": "Canonical Bridge",
   "protocol": "mantle-bridge",
   "change_1d_pct": -0.9145199117682239,
   "change_7d_pct": -7.311271141599917
  }
 ]
}

E10dev_and_communitycoingecko:/coins/{id}

developer activity: not tracked by CoinGecko for this coin; CoinGecko sentiment 100% positive (as of 2026-10-17)

data

{
 "as_of": "2026-10-17T00:00:36.480Z",
 "forks": null,
 "stars": null,
 "commits_4w": null,
 "prs_merged": null,
 "sentiment_up_pct": 100,
 "twitter_followers": null,
 "reddit_subscribers": null
}

E11signalscoingraph:signals

Triggered by: price_move (down, medium) at 21:42; price_move (down, medium) at 21:53

data

{
 "signals": [
  {
   "id": "116000",
   "kind": "price_move",
   "ratio": 3.82,
   "value": -1.528,
   "details": {
    "z_1h": 3.82,
    "price": 0.523211,
    "ret_1h_pct": -1.528,
    "ret_15m_pct": -1.403
   },
   "baseline": 0.404,
   "event_ts": "2026-10-17T21:42:00.000Z",
   "severity": 2,
   "direction": "down"
  },
  {
   "id": "116579",
   "kind": "price_move",
   "ratio": 3.63,
   "value": -1.514,
   "details": {
    "z_1h": 3.63,
    "price": 0.523369,
    "ret_1h_pct": -1.514,
    "ret_15m_pct": -0.624
   },
   "baseline": 0.421,
   "event_ts": "2026-10-17T21:53:00.000Z",
   "severity": 2,
   "direction": "down"
  }
 ]
}