What CoinGraph said about pump-fun, exactly as issued.

{
  "id": "1873",
  "token": {
    "id": "pump-fun"
  },
  "headline": "PUMP -3% as late selloff hits on 7x volume; spot-driven, few liquidations",
  "brief": {
    "caveats": [
      "CoinGecko shows price as '$0' only because of rounding. The real price is about $0.00434.",
      "Binance's last 1m close ($0.004276) is below CoinGecko's 15-minute window low ($0.00433559). The two sources sample prices differently.",
      "No news, social or exchange-flow data was in the evidence, so we cannot say what caused the selling.",
      "The holder-concentration snapshot is from about 19 hours before the window. It shows no holder movements during the window.",
      "Taker buy/sell ratio data was not available."
    ],
    "onchain": [
      {
        "text": "Holder concentration on Solana is high: the top 10 holders own 60.4% of supply and the top 20 own 71.3%. This snapshot is from 00:50 UTC, before the window, so it shows concentration risk but no in-window transfers.",
        "evidence": [
          "E7"
        ]
      },
      {
        "text": "TVL on PumpSwap (the related DEX) is $348.7M, down 2.12% over 1 day and 5.58% over 7 days. Activity on the related protocol is softening slightly.",
        "evidence": [
          "E11"
        ]
      },
      {
        "text": "ETH gas is quiet (base fee 0.05 gwei, blocks 49% full). PUMP is a Solana token, so this is not relevant to it.",
        "evidence": [
          "E8"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "summary": "PUMP held near $0.00446 for most of the window, then dropped about 2.3% between 21:15 and 21:30 UTC and ended the window down 2.96% at about $0.00434. Volume jumped sharply during the drop, but open interest was flat and liquidations were small. That points to spot selling, not a leverage unwind. No news or onchain flow in the evidence explains the selling. The drop adds to a 24h loss of 8.4% and a 7d loss of 20.7%, and PUMP fell more than BTC and ETH did.",
    "headline": "PUMP -3% as late selloff hits on 7x volume; spot-driven, few liquidations",
    "severity": 2,
    "direction": "bearish",
    "confidence": 0.6,
    "watch_next": [
      "Whether price holds the window low (~$0.00433, Binance ~$0.00428) or the late-window selling continues",
      "Whether volume settles back toward the ~$100K-per-15m median or stays elevated",
      "Top-trader long/short (2.80): if those large longs unwind, liquidations could be much bigger than the $86K seen in this window",
      "Open interest and funding: rising OI with negative funding would mean new shorts are joining the sell-off",
      "Transfers from the top-10 Solana holders (60.4% of supply) to exchanges",
      "PumpSwap TVL trend"
    ],
    "likely_causes": [
      {
        "cause": "Spot-led selling, concentrated in a burst after 21:15 UTC. Most of the window's loss came from heavy sell volume in about 15 minutes.",
        "evidence": [
          "E1",
          "E2",
          "E13"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.6
      },
      {
        "cause": "Not a leveraged long flush. Binance open interest barely moved (-0.01% vs 1h ago), and liquidations were small: $86.1K in total, $85.9K of it longs, largest single liquidation $16.4K.",
        "evidence": [
          "E3",
          "E6"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.7
      },
      {
        "cause": "Continuation of the coin's own downtrend amid a mildly weak market. PUMP's -2.96% was much worse than BTC (-0.31%) and ETH (-1.06%), so the market alone does not explain it.",
        "evidence": [
          "E1",
          "E9"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.45
      },
      {
        "cause": "The evidence does not show what set off the selling. There is no news, no exchange-flow data and no wallet-level onchain data.",
        "evidence": [
          "E7",
          "E12"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.5
      }
    ],
    "what_happened": [
      {
        "text": "PUMP fell 2.96% over the window, from a high of $0.00447336 to a low of $0.00433559. Price traded in a narrow $0.004455–0.004473 range until 21:15, then dropped from $0.0044358 to $0.00433559 by 21:30 UTC.",
        "evidence": [
          "E1"
        ]
      },
      {
        "text": "CoinGraph's price-move signal fired at 21:36 UTC: -4.24% over 1h and -2.74% over 15m, with a 1h z-score of 3.35.",
        "evidence": [
          "E13"
        ]
      },
      {
        "text": "Binance PUMP/USDT traded $977.6K in the last hour, 2.3× a typical hour ($433.2K). All of the busiest minutes came at the end of the window, between 21:27 and 21:38, and every one closed lower: 21:31 $129.6K (-0.25%), 21:38 $118.7K (-0.28%), 21:34 $100K (-0.58%). The Binance close at 21:38 was $0.004276.",
        "evidence": [
          "E2"
        ]
      },
      {
        "text": "A volume-spike signal fired at 21:43 UTC: $732.8K in 15 minutes against a 24h median of $101.6K per 15 minutes (7.2×).",
        "evidence": [
          "E13"
        ]
      },
      {
        "text": "Larger trend: -8.37% over 24h and -20.67% over 7d. Market cap is $2.0B (rank #49) and 24h volume is $122.3M. Price is about 51% below the $0.00881908 all-time high.",
        "evidence": [
          "E1"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "market_context": [
      {
        "text": "The broader market was mildly risk-off: BTC -0.31% and ETH -1.06% over the window, and total crypto market cap -3.33% over 24h. PUMP was not trending.",
        "evidence": [
          "E9"
        ]
      },
      {
        "text": "Sentiment has cooled. Fear & Greed is at 55 (Greed), down from 64 a week ago.",
        "evidence": [
          "E10"
        ]
      },
      {
        "text": "Derivatives positioning is mixed. Funding is near zero (Binance 0.0008%, OKX 0.005% per 8h; ~0.01% is normal). Across all Binance accounts there are more shorts than longs (long/short 0.86), but top traders by position size are heavily long (2.80). Open interest is $88.7M, down 3.11% over 4h.",
        "evidence": [
          "E3",
          "E4",
          "E5"
        ]
      }
    ]
  },
  "evidence": {
    "name": "Pump.fun",
    "items": [
      {
        "id": "E1",
        "data": {
          "ath": 0.00881908,
          "low": 0.00433559,
          "high": 0.00447336,
          "rank": 49,
          "as_of": "2026-10-17T22:31:00.000Z",
          "price": 0.0043393,
          "path_15m": [
            {
              "t": "2026-10-17T19:30:00.000Z",
              "price": 0.00447166
            },
            {
              "t": "2026-10-17T19:45:00.000Z",
              "price": 0.00447336
            },
            {
              "t": "2026-10-17T20:00:00.000Z",
              "price": 0.00446643
            },
            {
              "t": "2026-10-17T20:15:00.000Z",
              "price": 0.00445494
            },
            {
              "t": "2026-10-17T20:30:00.000Z",
              "price": 0.00445716
            },
            {
              "t": "2026-10-17T20:45:00.000Z",
              "price": 0.00446118
            },
            {
              "t": "2026-10-17T21:00:00.000Z",
              "price": 0.00445834
            },
            {
              "t": "2026-10-17T21:15:00.000Z",
              "price": 0.0044358
            },
            {
              "t": "2026-10-17T21:30:00.000Z",
              "price": 0.00433559
            }
          ],
          "market_cap": 2007261024,
          "volume_24h": 122291547,
          "change_1h_pct": 0.3821614794183373,
          "change_7d_pct": -20.671512456947298,
          "change_24h_pct": -8.37182,
          "window_return_pct": -2.96
        },
        "kind": "price",
        "source": "coingecko:/coins/markets",
        "summary": "PUMP $0 now; -2.96% over the window (high $0, low $0); 1h +0.38%, 24h -8.37%, 7d -20.67%; rank #49, market cap $2B, 24h volume $122.3M"
      },
      {
        "id": "E2",
        "data": {
          "ratio": 2.256854359235105,
          "venue": "binance",
          "symbol": "PUMP/USDT",
          "volume_1h_usd": 977649.945188,
          "busiest_minutes": [
            {
              "v": "129601.495567",
              "ts": "2026-10-17T21:31:00.000Z",
              "ret": "-0.254",
              "close": "0.004318"
            },
            {
              "v": "118674.492533",
              "ts": "2026-10-17T21:38:00.000Z",
              "ret": "-0.280",
              "close": "0.004276"
            },
            {
              "v": "105863.203422",
              "ts": "2026-10-17T21:32:00.000Z",
              "ret": "-0.185",
              "close": "0.004308"
            },
            {
              "v": "99962.097979",
              "ts": "2026-10-17T21:34:00.000Z",
              "ret": "-0.579",
              "close": "0.004291"
            },
            {
              "v": "68107.559792",
              "ts": "2026-10-17T21:27:00.000Z",
              "ret": "-0.667",
              "close": "0.004322"
            }
          ],
          "volume_window_usd": 1455422.440405,
          "median_hourly_24h_usd": 433191.420256
        },
        "kind": "spot_volume",
        "source": "binance:klines:1m",
        "summary": "binance PUMP/USDT: $977.6K traded in the last hour vs a typical hour of $433.2K (2.3×); busiest minutes: 21:31 $129.6K (-0.254%), 21:38 $118.7K (-0.28%), 21:32 $105.9K (-0.185%), 21:34 $100K (-0.579%), 21:27 $68.1K (-0.667%)"
      },
      {
        "id": "E3",
        "data": {
          "as_of": "2026-10-17T22:30:00.000Z",
          "change_1h_pct": -0.01,
          "change_4h_pct": -3.11,
          "open_interest_usd": 88712819.8395456
        },
        "kind": "open_interest",
        "source": "binanceusdm:openInterestHist:5m",
        "summary": "Binance futures open interest $88.7M: -0.01% vs 1h ago, -3.11% vs 4h ago"
      },
      {
        "id": "E4",
        "data": {
          "rates": [
            {
              "venue": "binanceusdm",
              "symbol": "PUMP/USDT:USDT",
              "funding_rate_pct": 0.0007679999999999999
            },
            {
              "venue": "okx",
              "symbol": "PUMP/USDT:USDT",
              "funding_rate_pct": 0.005
            }
          ]
        },
        "kind": "funding",
        "source": "ccxt:fetchFundingRates",
        "summary": "Funding per 8h: binanceusdm 0.0008%, okx 0.0050% (positive = longs pay; ~0.01% is normal)"
      },
      {
        "id": "E5",
        "data": {
          "as_of": "2026-10-17T22:25:00.000Z",
          "taker_buy_sell": null,
          "global_long_short": 0.8594,
          "top_account_long_short": 1.151,
          "top_position_long_short": 2.8027
        },
        "kind": "positioning",
        "source": "binanceusdm:futuresSentiment:5m",
        "summary": "Binance positioning: all accounts long/short 0.86, top traders by position 2.80, taker buy/sell undefined (>1 = net buying)"
      },
      {
        "id": "E6",
        "data": {
          "count": 65,
          "longs_usd": 85927.662,
          "total_usd": 86075.018,
          "shorts_usd": 147.35599999999977,
          "largest_usd": 16365
        },
        "kind": "liquidations",
        "source": "okx+binance:liquidations",
        "summary": "65 forced liquidations worth $86.1K in the window: $85.9K longs, $147.4 shorts; largest $16.4K"
      },
      {
        "id": "E7",
        "data": {
          "as_of": "2026-10-17T00:50:00.000Z",
          "chain": "sol",
          "top10_pct": 60.38566862631261,
          "top20_pct": 71.2967121849346
        },
        "kind": "holder_concentration",
        "source": "nownodes:sol:getTokenLargestAccounts",
        "summary": "Top 10 holders own 60.4% of supply, top 20 71.3% (SOL, as of 2026-10-17T00:50)"
      },
      {
        "id": "E8",
        "data": {
          "as_of": "2026-10-17T22:32:00.000Z",
          "chain": "eth",
          "base_fee_gwei": 0.05480076565333334,
          "gas_used_ratio": 0.4899713208817486,
          "avg_base_fee_24h_gwei": 0.06284264441236112,
          "priority_fee_p50_gwei": 0.12105738250666669
        },
        "kind": "network_fees",
        "source": "nownodes:eth:eth_feeHistory",
        "summary": "ETH base fee 0.05 gwei (24h average 0.06), blocks 49% full"
      },
      {
        "id": "E9",
        "data": {
          "trending": false,
          "categories": [
            "Decentralized Exchange (DEX)",
            "Exchange-based Tokens",
            "SocialFi",
            "Decentralized Finance (DeFi)",
            "Automated Market Maker (AMM)",
            "Solana Ecosystem",
            "Launchpad",
            "Meme",
            "CoinList Launchpad"
          ],
          "btc_change_24h_pct": -0.62116,
          "btc_window_return_pct": -0.31,
          "eth_window_return_pct": -1.06,
          "global_market_cap_change_24h_pct": -3.328220548065851
        },
        "kind": "market_context",
        "source": "coingecko:/coins/markets+/global",
        "summary": "Market: BTC -0.31% and ETH -1.06% over the same window; total crypto market cap -3.33% in 24h; categories: Decentralized Exchange (DEX), Exchange-based Tokens, SocialFi, Decentralized Finance (DeFi)"
      },
      {
        "id": "E10",
        "data": {
          "day": "2026-10-17T00:00:00.000Z",
          "value": 55,
          "week_ago": 64,
          "classification": "Greed"
        },
        "kind": "market_mood",
        "source": "alternative.me:/fng",
        "summary": "Crypto Fear & Greed index 55 (Greed) today, 64 a week ago"
      },
      {
        "id": "E11",
        "data": {
          "protocols": [
            {
              "name": "PumpSwap",
              "tvl_usd": 348667804.6099113,
              "category": "Dexs",
              "protocol": "pumpswap",
              "change_1d_pct": -2.115093986964979,
              "change_7d_pct": -5.5764578196931325
            }
          ]
        },
        "kind": "protocol_tvl",
        "source": "defillama:/protocols",
        "summary": "Protocol TVL (DefiLlama): PumpSwap $348.7M (-2.12% 1d, -5.58% 7d)"
      },
      {
        "id": "E12",
        "data": {
          "as_of": "2026-10-17T00:00:34.324Z",
          "forks": null,
          "stars": null,
          "commits_4w": null,
          "prs_merged": null,
          "sentiment_up_pct": 64.29,
          "twitter_followers": null,
          "reddit_subscribers": null
        },
        "kind": "dev_and_community",
        "source": "coingecko:/coins/{id}",
        "summary": "developer activity: not tracked by CoinGecko for this coin; CoinGecko sentiment 64% positive (as of 2026-10-17)"
      },
      {
        "id": "E13",
        "data": {
          "signals": [
            {
              "id": "115959",
              "kind": "volume_spike",
              "ratio": 7.21,
              "value": 732813,
              "details": {
                "median_15m_24h": 101642,
                "volume_usd_15m": 732813
              },
              "baseline": 101642,
              "event_ts": "2026-10-17T21:43:58.840Z",
              "severity": 3,
              "direction": "neutral"
            },
            {
              "id": "115657",
              "kind": "price_move",
              "ratio": 3.35,
              "value": -4.243,
              "details": {
                "z_1h": 3.35,
                "price": 0.00429098,
                "ret_1h_pct": -4.243,
                "ret_15m_pct": -2.743
              },
              "baseline": 1.301,
              "event_ts": "2026-10-17T21:36:00.000Z",
              "severity": 2,
              "direction": "down"
            }
          ]
        },
        "kind": "signals",
        "source": "coingraph:signals",
        "summary": "Triggered by: volume_spike (neutral, high) at 21:43; price_move (down, medium) at 21:36"
      }
    ],
    "symbol": "PUMP",
    "window_to": "2026-10-17T21:39:16.040Z",
    "gathered_at": "2026-10-17T22:32:32.539Z",
    "window_from": "2026-10-17T19:39:16.040Z",
    "coingecko_id": "pump-fun"
  },
  "model": "claude-opus-5-5"
}