Proof · Brief

What CoinGraph said about tron, exactly as issued.

Issued 2026-10-17 22:38:35 UTC · id 1884

TRX -0.26% in quiet drift lower; 15m volume spike of 6.6× at 21:30–21:45 with small sells

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60 source calls recorded around issue time

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SHA-256 fingerprint

8c07d6557474b5274f7a8b9a774c11e7e0a00c7626cede6e3c63942f6e83302f

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Check it yourself
curl -s https://coingraph.ai/api/v1/verify/1884

Source calls behind it

ProviderEndpointAt (UTC)LatencyOK
ccxt:binanceusdmklines:1m22:38:218215 ms✓
ccxt:binanceklines:1m22:38:175927 ms✓
ccxt:okxklines:1m22:38:081568 ms✓
ccxt:bybitklines:1m22:38:07872 ms✓
ccxt:gateklines:1m22:38:071461 ms✓
ccxt:krakenklines:1m22:38:074189 ms✓
nownodeseth-archive:eth_call:balanceOf22:37:43218 ms✓
nownodeseth:/address/{wallet}:investigation22:37:421032 ms✓
nownodeseth-archive:eth_call:balanceOf22:37:41696 ms✓
coingecko/coins/markets22:37:40440 ms✓
nownodeseth:/address/{wallet}:investigation22:37:40807 ms✓
ccxt:binanceusdmklines:1m22:37:227764 ms✓
ccxt:binanceklines:1m22:37:185807 ms✓
ccxt:bybitklines:1m22:37:09867 ms✓
ccxt:okxklines:1m22:37:091964 ms✓
ccxt:gateklines:1m22:37:07940 ms✓
ccxt:krakenklines:1m22:37:074176 ms✓
coingecko/coins/markets22:36:40464 ms✓
ccxt:binanceusdmklines:1m22:36:207781 ms✓
ccxt:binanceklines:1m22:36:185887 ms✓
ccxt:okxklines:1m22:36:105430 ms✓
ccxt:bybitklines:1m22:36:10862 ms✓
ccxt:gateklines:1m22:36:091009 ms✓
ccxt:krakenklines:1m22:36:094002 ms✓
nownodeseth-archive:eth_call:balanceOf22:35:51294 ms✓
The exact object (9,781 bytes)
{
  "id": "1884",
  "token": {
    "id": "tron"
  },
  "headline": "TRX -0.26% in quiet drift lower; 15m volume spike of 6.6× at 21:30–21:45 with small sells",
  "brief": {
    "caveats": [
      "The move is very small (-0.26%) and well within normal noise.",
      "The 15m spike ratio (~6.6×) is much larger than Binance's hourly ratio (1.2×). The signal probably uses a different venue set or baseline, so the size of the burst is uncertain.",
      "There is no TRON-chain onchain data and no news evidence; the cause of the volume burst is unexplained.",
      "The Binance taker buy/sell ratio was unavailable."
    ],
    "onchain": [
      {
        "text": "No TRON-chain onchain data was provided. The only onchain item is Ethereum gas (base fee 0.05 gwei vs 0.06 24h average, blocks 49% full), which shows a calm network and has no direct bearing on TRX.",
        "evidence": [
          "E7"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "summary": "TRX traded in a tight $0.3334–$0.3343 range and ended the window down 0.26%. That is a smaller drop than BTC (-0.38%) and ETH (-1.15%) over the same two hours. A 15-minute volume burst of about 6.6× the usual level came near the end of the window and lined up with a small slide from about $0.3341 to $0.3336 on Binance. Derivatives data shows no stress: open interest edged down, funding was near zero and liquidations were negligible. The evidence points to a minor drift that followed the market, not a TRX-specific event.",
    "headline": "TRX -0.26% in quiet drift lower; 15m volume spike of 6.6× at 21:30–21:45 with small sells",
    "severity": 1,
    "direction": "neutral",
    "confidence": 0.6,
    "watch_next": [
      "Whether TRX holds around $0.333, near the window low; it was $0.333218 at 22:37, already below the window low of $0.333423",
      "Whether the 15m volume spike continues, and whether it comes with net selling",
      "Whether top-trader positioning on Binance turns more short (ratio now 0.58) or funding moves further negative",
      "How BTC and ETH move next, since TRX has been tracking the broader market"
    ],
    "likely_causes": [
      {
        "cause": "TRX moved down with a broadly weaker market: BTC and ETH both fell over the window and total market cap was down 3.33% in 24h. TRX fell less than either.",
        "evidence": [
          "E1",
          "E8"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.55
      },
      {
        "cause": "A short burst of spot selling around 21:25–21:38 pushed the price down slightly. The busiest Binance minutes all closed flat or lower, and the timing matches the volume_spike signals.",
        "evidence": [
          "E2",
          "E11"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.45
      },
      {
        "cause": "None of the evidence includes TRX-specific news or onchain flows, so the source of the volume burst is unexplained.",
        "evidence": [
          "E10",
          "E11"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.5
      }
    ],
    "what_happened": [
      {
        "text": "TRX fell 0.26% over the window, from $0.334077 at 19:45 to $0.333423 at 21:45 UTC. It peaked at $0.334252 at 20:45, and most of the drop came after 21:00. At 22:37 the price was $0.333218 (1h -0.15%, 24h -0.60%, 7d +0.79%).",
        "evidence": [
          "E1"
        ]
      },
      {
        "text": "Two volume_spike signals fired at 21:43 and 21:45. 15-minute volume was about $871K–$899K against a 24h median of about $132K–$134K, roughly 6.6–6.7×.",
        "evidence": [
          "E11"
        ]
      },
      {
        "text": "On Binance spot TRX/USDT, last-hour volume was $770.7K, only 1.2× a typical hour. The busiest minutes clustered between 21:25 and 21:38, each with small negative or flat returns (-0.06% to -0.09%), as the price eased from $0.3341 to $0.3336.",
        "evidence": [
          "E2"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "market_context": [
      {
        "text": "Derivatives positioning is calm. Binance futures open interest was $85.5M, down 0.56% over 1h and 1.31% over 4h, which suggests mild deleveraging rather than new bets. Funding was near zero to slightly negative: Binance +0.0018%, Bybit -0.0051%, OKX -0.0072% per 8h.",
        "evidence": [
          "E3",
          "E4"
        ]
      },
      {
        "text": "Binance accounts overall lean long (1.55 long/short), but top traders by position size lean short (0.58), a mild divergence. Liquidations were negligible: 5 totalling $136.9, of which $110.1 were longs.",
        "evidence": [
          "E5",
          "E6"
        ]
      },
      {
        "text": "Sentiment: the Fear & Greed index is at 55 (Greed), down from 64 a week ago, and CoinGecko community sentiment is 41% positive.",
        "evidence": [
          "E9",
          "E10"
        ]
      }
    ]
  },
  "evidence": {
    "name": "TRON",
    "items": [
      {
        "id": "E1",
        "data": {
          "ath": 0.431288,
          "low": 0.333423,
          "high": 0.334252,
          "rank": 8,
          "as_of": "2026-10-17T22:37:00.000Z",
          "price": 0.333218,
          "path_15m": [
            {
              "t": "2026-10-17T19:45:00.000Z",
              "price": 0.334077
            },
            {
              "t": "2026-10-17T20:00:00.000Z",
              "price": 0.334049
            },
            {
              "t": "2026-10-17T20:15:00.000Z",
              "price": 0.334148
            },
            {
              "t": "2026-10-17T20:30:00.000Z",
              "price": 0.33412
            },
            {
              "t": "2026-10-17T20:45:00.000Z",
              "price": 0.334252
            },
            {
              "t": "2026-10-17T21:00:00.000Z",
              "price": 0.334241
            },
            {
              "t": "2026-10-17T21:15:00.000Z",
              "price": 0.334091
            },
            {
              "t": "2026-10-17T21:30:00.000Z",
              "price": 0.333807
            },
            {
              "t": "2026-10-17T21:45:00.000Z",
              "price": 0.333423
            }
          ],
          "market_cap": 31654305075,
          "volume_24h": 292704853,
          "change_1h_pct": -0.15192149224661022,
          "change_7d_pct": 0.78518670868847,
          "change_24h_pct": -0.59889,
          "window_return_pct": -0.26
        },
        "kind": "price",
        "source": "coingecko:/coins/markets",
        "summary": "TRX $0.3 now; -0.26% over the window (high $0.3, low $0.3); 1h -0.15%, 24h -0.6%, 7d +0.79%; rank #8, market cap $31.7B, 24h volume $292.7M"
      },
      {
        "id": "E2",
        "data": {
          "ratio": 1.1785388455197503,
          "venue": "binance",
          "symbol": "TRX/USDT",
          "volume_1h_usd": 770742.58351,
          "busiest_minutes": [
            {
              "v": "267593.08222",
              "ts": "2026-10-17T21:29:00.000Z",
              "ret": "-0.060",
              "close": "0.3339"
            },
            {
              "v": "258616.81552",
              "ts": "2026-10-17T21:38:00.000Z",
              "ret": "-0.060",
              "close": "0.3336"
            },
            {
              "v": "222520.06093",
              "ts": "2026-10-17T21:37:00.000Z",
              "ret": "-0.090",
              "close": "0.3337"
            },
            {
              "v": "187201.28426",
              "ts": "2026-10-17T21:26:00.000Z",
              "ret": "0.000",
              "close": "0.3341"
            },
            {
              "v": "175082.42556",
              "ts": "2026-10-17T21:25:00.000Z",
              "ret": "-0.060",
              "close": "0.3341"
            }
          ],
          "volume_window_usd": 2381052.4856,
          "median_hourly_24h_usd": 653981.48431
        },
        "kind": "spot_volume",
        "source": "binance:klines:1m",
        "summary": "binance TRX/USDT: $770.7K traded in the last hour vs a typical hour of $654K (1.2×); busiest minutes: 21:29 $267.6K (-0.06%), 21:38 $258.6K (-0.06%), 21:37 $222.5K (-0.09%), 21:26 $187.2K (0%), 21:25 $175.1K (-0.06%)"
      },
      {
        "id": "E3",
        "data": {
          "as_of": "2026-10-17T22:30:00.000Z",
          "change_1h_pct": -0.56,
          "change_4h_pct": -1.31,
          "open_interest_usd": 85497681.66658
        },
        "kind": "open_interest",
        "source": "binanceusdm:openInterestHist:5m",
        "summary": "Binance futures open interest $85.5M: -0.56% vs 1h ago, -1.31% vs 4h ago"
      },
      {
        "id": "E4",
        "data": {
          "rates": [
            {
              "venue": "binanceusdm",
              "symbol": "TRX/USDT:USDT",
              "funding_rate_pct": 0.001817
            },
            {
              "venue": "bybit",
              "symbol": "TRX/USDT:USDT",
              "funding_rate_pct": -0.005085999999999999
            },
            {
              "venue": "okx",
              "symbol": "TRX/USDT:USDT",
              "funding_rate_pct": -0.007237311702569999
            }
          ]
        },
        "kind": "funding",
        "source": "ccxt:fetchFundingRates",
        "summary": "Funding per 8h: binanceusdm 0.0018%, bybit -0.0051%, okx -0.0072% (positive = longs pay; ~0.01% is normal)"
      },
      {
        "id": "E5",
        "data": {
          "as_of": "2026-10-17T22:30:00.000Z",
          "taker_buy_sell": null,
          "global_long_short": 1.5536,
          "top_account_long_short": 1.5432,
          "top_position_long_short": 0.5838
        },
        "kind": "positioning",
        "source": "binanceusdm:futuresSentiment:5m",
        "summary": "Binance positioning: all accounts long/short 1.55, top traders by position 0.58, taker buy/sell undefined (>1 = net buying)"
      },
      {
        "id": "E6",
        "data": {
          "count": 5,
          "longs_usd": 110.1432,
          "total_usd": 136.8664,
          "shorts_usd": 26.723200000000006,
          "largest_usd": 60.074999999999996
        },
        "kind": "liquidations",
        "source": "okx+binance:liquidations",
        "summary": "5 forced liquidations worth $136.9 in the window: $110.1 longs, $26.7 shorts; largest $60.1"
      },
      {
        "id": "E7",
        "data": {
          "as_of": "2026-10-17T22:32:00.000Z",
          "chain": "eth",
          "base_fee_gwei": 0.05480076565333334,
          "gas_used_ratio": 0.4899713208817486,
          "avg_base_fee_24h_gwei": 0.06284264441236112,
          "priority_fee_p50_gwei": 0.12105738250666669
        },
        "kind": "network_fees",
        "source": "nownodes:eth:eth_feeHistory",
        "summary": "ETH base fee 0.05 gwei (24h average 0.06), blocks 49% full"
      },
      {
        "id": "E8",
        "data": {
          "trending": false,
          "categories": [
            "Smart Contract Platform",
            "Layer 1 (L1)",
            "Alleged SEC Securities",
            "FTX Holdings",
            "DWF Labs Portfolio",
            "Tron Ecosystem",
            "Proof of Stake (PoS)",
            "GMCI Layer 1 Index",
            "GMCI 30 Index",
            "GMCI Index",
            "World Liberty Financial Portfolio",
            "Made in China"
          ],
          "btc_change_24h_pct": -0.58885,
          "btc_window_return_pct": -0.38,
          "eth_window_return_pct": -1.15,
          "global_market_cap_change_24h_pct": -3.328220548065851
        },
        "kind": "market_context",
        "source": "coingecko:/coins/markets+/global",
        "summary": "Market: BTC -0.38% and ETH -1.15% over the same window; total crypto market cap -3.33% in 24h; categories: Smart Contract Platform, Layer 1 (L1), Alleged SEC Securities, FTX Holdings"
      },
      {
        "id": "E9",
        "data": {
          "day": "2026-10-17T00:00:00.000Z",
          "value": 55,
          "week_ago": 64,
          "classification": "Greed"
        },
        "kind": "market_mood",
        "source": "alternative.me:/fng",
        "summary": "Crypto Fear & Greed index 55 (Greed) today, 64 a week ago"
      },
      {
        "id": "E10",
        "data": {
          "as_of": "2026-10-17T00:00:23.457Z",
          "forks": null,
          "stars": null,
          "commits_4w": null,
          "prs_merged": null,
          "sentiment_up_pct": 41.18,
          "twitter_followers": null,
          "reddit_subscribers": null
        },
        "kind": "dev_and_community",
        "source": "coingecko:/coins/{id}",
        "summary": "developer activity: not tracked by CoinGecko for this coin; CoinGecko sentiment 41% positive (as of 2026-10-17)"
      },
      {
        "id": "E11",
        "data": {
          "signals": [
            {
              "id": "115568",
              "kind": "volume_spike",
              "ratio": 6.62,
              "value": 871267,
              "details": {
                "median_15m_24h": 131678,
                "volume_usd_15m": 871267
              },
              "baseline": 131678,
              "event_ts": "2026-10-17T21:43:58.840Z",
              "severity": 3,
              "direction": "neutral"
            },
            {
              "id": "116541",
              "kind": "volume_spike",
              "ratio": 6.69,
              "value": 898809,
              "details": {
                "median_15m_24h": 134288,
                "volume_usd_15m": 898809
              },
              "baseline": 134288,
              "event_ts": "2026-10-17T21:45:58.974Z",
              "severity": 3,
              "direction": "neutral"
            }
          ]
        },
        "kind": "signals",
        "source": "coingraph:signals",
        "summary": "Triggered by: volume_spike (neutral, high) at 21:43; volume_spike (neutral, high) at 21:45"
      }
    ],
    "symbol": "TRX",
    "window_to": "2026-10-17T21:46:27.549Z",
    "gathered_at": "2026-10-17T22:38:15.944Z",
    "window_from": "2026-10-17T19:46:27.549Z",
    "coingecko_id": "tron"
  },
  "model": "claude-opus-5-5"
}