← CoinGraph · Brief #1912 · Proof

Aave · AAVE

AAVE +1% to $152.2 on 3.5× Binance volume; $741K net exchange outflow, bid-heavy book

bullishseverity 1/3confidence 45%donescore 6.0opened 2026-10-18 02:31 UTCclaude-opus-5-5

AAVE rose 1% to $152.24 over the two-hour window, slightly beating BTC (+0.35%) and ETH (+0.46%). Binance spot volume ran 3.5× a normal hour, and 15-minute volume hit 9–11× normal near the window's close. Three Binance withdrawals totalling about $427K came within minutes of high-volume up-minutes, and the order book was heavy on the bid side. This points to modest spot buying, not a big event. The move is small, AAVE is still down 9.9% over 7 days, and no clear catalyst shows up in the evidence.

What happened

Likely causes

  1. 1.Modest spot buying on Binance, with some coins then withdrawn from the exchange. Withdrawals of $129K, $139K and $159K at 02:19–02:23 line up with the high-volume up-minutes at 02:19 and 02:23. (50%) E2E8E7E6
  2. 2.Some new leveraged longs. Open interest rose 0.83% in 1h, but funding stayed normal, so leverage is not driving the move. (30%) E3E4E5
  3. 3.No news, protocol event or broad-market catalyst appears in the evidence. AAVE beat BTC and ETH by only about 0.5–0.65 points, so part of the move may just be noise inside a weak week. (40%) E15E17E18

Onchain

Market context

What to watch

Caveats

Evidence (19 items)

  1. E1pricecoingecko:/coins/markets

    AAVE $152.2 now; +1% over the window (high $152.2, low $150.7); 1h +0.85%, 24h -1.4%, 7d -9.94%; rank #46, market cap $2.4B, 24h volume $185.3M

    data
    {
     "ath": 661.69,
     "low": 150.73,
     "high": 152.24,
     "rank": 46,
     "as_of": "2026-10-18T02:30:00.000Z",
     "price": 152.24,
     "path_15m": [
      {
       "t": "2026-10-18T00:30:00.000Z",
       "price": 150.74
      },
      {
       "t": "2026-10-18T00:45:00.000Z",
       "price": 150.73
      },
      {
       "t": "2026-10-18T01:00:00.000Z",
       "price": 150.97
      },
      {
       "t": "2026-10-18T01:15:00.000Z",
       "price": 150.96
      },
      {
       "t": "2026-10-18T01:30:00.000Z",
       "price": 150.95
      },
      {
       "t": "2026-10-18T01:45:00.000Z",
       "price": 151.98
      },
      {
       "t": "2026-10-18T02:00:00.000Z",
       "price": 151.36
      },
      {
       "t": "2026-10-18T02:15:00.000Z",
       "price": 150.98
      },
      {
       "t": "2026-10-18T02:30:00.000Z",
       "price": 152.24
      }
     ],
     "market_cap": 2350027347,
     "volume_24h": 185286757,
     "change_1h_pct": 0.85458761179198,
     "change_7d_pct": -9.938476100331282,
     "change_24h_pct": -1.3998,
     "window_return_pct": 1
    }
  2. E2spot_volumebinance:klines:1m

    binance AAVE/USDT: $1M traded in the last hour vs a typical hour of $291.4K (3.5×); busiest minutes: 01:03 $192.1K (0%), 02:19 $163.5K (+0.198%), 01:04 $142.5K (+0.079%), 02:23 $127.1K (+0.039%), 02:29 $103.5K (+0.138%)

    data
    {
     "ratio": 3.5265245673035026,
     "venue": "binance",
     "symbol": "AAVE/USDT",
     "volume_1h_usd": 1027694.7859,
     "busiest_minutes": [
      {
       "v": "192103.56964",
       "ts": "2026-10-18T01:03:00.000Z",
       "ret": "0.000",
       "close": "151.4"
      },
      {
       "v": "163498.11386",
       "ts": "2026-10-18T02:19:00.000Z",
       "ret": "0.198",
       "close": "151.56"
      },
      {
       "v": "142542.91702",
       "ts": "2026-10-18T01:04:00.000Z",
       "ret": "0.079",
       "close": "151.52"
      },
      {
       "v": "127062.35222",
       "ts": "2026-10-18T02:23:00.000Z",
       "ret": "0.039",
       "close": "152.15"
      },
      {
       "v": "103525.79725",
       "ts": "2026-10-18T02:29:00.000Z",
       "ret": "0.138",
       "close": "152.61"
      }
     ],
     "volume_window_usd": 1744989.04751,
     "median_hourly_24h_usd": 291418.58118
    }
  3. E3open_interestbinanceusdm:openInterestHist:5m

    Binance futures open interest $58.8M: +0.83% vs 1h ago, +1.15% vs 4h ago

    data
    {
     "as_of": "2026-10-18T02:25:00.000Z",
     "change_1h_pct": 0.83,
     "change_4h_pct": 1.15,
     "open_interest_usd": 58801254.32933394
    }
  4. E4fundingccxt:fetchFundingRates

    Funding per 8h: binanceusdm 0.0071%, bybit 0.0032%, okx 0.0100% (positive = longs pay; ~0.01% is normal)

    data
    {
     "rates": [
      {
       "venue": "binanceusdm",
       "symbol": "AAVE/USDT:USDT",
       "funding_rate_pct": 0.0071
      },
      {
       "venue": "bybit",
       "symbol": "AAVE/USDT:USDT",
       "funding_rate_pct": 0.003154
      },
      {
       "venue": "okx",
       "symbol": "AAVE/USDT:USDT",
       "funding_rate_pct": 0.01
      }
     ]
    }
  5. E5positioningbinanceusdm:futuresSentiment:5m

    Binance positioning: all accounts long/short 1.26, top traders by position 2.00, taker buy/sell undefined (>1 = net buying)

    data
    {
     "as_of": "2026-10-18T02:25:00.000Z",
     "taker_buy_sell": null,
     "global_long_short": 1.263,
     "top_account_long_short": 1.6116,
     "top_position_long_short": 2.005
    }
  6. E6order_bookbinance:fetchOrderBook

    binance order book: $271.4K of bids vs $84.7K of asks within 2% (3.21 bid/ask depth ratio)

    data
    {
     "as_of": "2026-10-18T02:30:00.000Z",
     "venue": "binance",
     "best_ask": 152.43,
     "best_bid": 152.42,
     "depth_ask_2pct_usd": 84662.03434999999,
     "depth_bid_2pct_usd": 271448.5491999998
    }
  7. E7exchange_flowsnownodes:eth:eth_getLogs

    Onchain (ETH): 595 transfers worth $5.3M in the window; $0 moved onto exchanges, $741.1K left exchanges → net outflow of $741.1K (typical 15-min |net| $1.6K)

    data
    {
     "chain": "eth",
     "transfers": 595,
     "volume_usd": 5330428.864604778,
     "large_transfers": 42,
     "exchange_net_usd": -741116.746021472,
     "exchange_inflow_usd": 0,
     "exchange_outflow_usd": 741116.746021472,
     "median_volume_15m_7d": 19585.3288580071,
     "median_abs_net_15m_7d": 1627.289797
    }
  8. E8large_transfersnownodes:onchain_transfers

    12 largest transfers in the window: $1.3M other at 00:57; $158.6K ← binance at 02:23; $139.4K ← binance at 02:22; $129.1K ← binance at 02:19; $128K other at 02:11

    data
    {
     "transfers": [
      {
       "to": "0x15da7556d5ed888306839bed06f868aeaedcb0d7",
       "ts": "2026-10-18T00:57:08.369Z",
       "from": "0x9b0c45d46d386cedd98873168c36efd0dcba8d46",
       "block": 26216006,
       "chain": "eth",
       "amount": 8545.878,
       "tx_hash": "0xc31efe1d8e9ad89f22571bd5a16016aec0f93520540f08535e765b086933ae91",
       "direction": "other",
       "to_entity": null,
       "amount_usd": 1290171.20166,
       "from_entity": null
      },
      {
       "to": "0xbee3211ab312a8d065c4fef0247448e17a8da000",
       "ts": "2026-10-18T02:23:53.739Z",
       "from": "0xdfd5293d8e347dfe59e90efd55b2956a1343963d",
       "block": 26216438,
       "chain": "eth",
       "amount": 1041.7207,
       "tx_hash": "0x9d5cff61bb0a16a7b7136cf2c414028c78de89d2b70d63ff0a840ac4e7354592",
       "direction": "from_exchange",
       "to_entity": null,
       "amount_usd": 158591.55936800002,
       "from_entity": "binance"
      },
      {
       "to": "0xbee3211ab312a8d065c4fef0247448e17a8da000",
       "ts": "2026-10-18T02:22:04.260Z",
       "from": "0x21a31ee1afc51d94c2efccaa2092ad1028285549",
       "block": 26216429,
       "chain": "eth",
       "amount": 915.4507,
       "tx_hash": "0x673e4b133773d458e41964d979a6533ff7d8caefb138439521640c00ad58af6b",
       "direction": "from_exchange",
       "to_entity": null,
       "amount_usd": 139368.214568,
       "from_entity": "binance"
      },
      {
       "to": "0xbee3211ab312a8d065c4fef0247448e17a8da000",
       "ts": "2026-10-18T02:19:26.123Z",
       "from": "0xdfd5293d8e347dfe59e90efd55b2956a1343963d",
       "block": 26216416,
       "chain": "eth",
       "amount": 847.7267,
       "tx_hash": "0xc2b328989fb552d315b4643f16245e90340a9f05847845ab50764c7ba7d6b5ca",
       "direction": "from_exchange",
       "to_entity": null,
       "amount_usd": 129057.91280800001,
       "from_entity": "binance"
      },
      {
       "to": "0xbc8a0f5e41857292d12ef620e2a5895ce65a5ce0",
       "ts": "2026-10-18T02:11:59.000Z",
       "from": "0x7d94077f58593f8b97c5cab56c8924e13b49946e",
       "block": 26216379,
       "chain": "eth",
       "amount": 847.99539,
       "tx_hash": "0x50dcfc3f37f59b1a800f246cc6de1f38f22c302eb0eb1960f79bdd12735dae37",
       "direction": "other",
       "to_entity": null,
       "amount_usd": 128030.3439822,
       "from_entity": null
      },
      {
       "to": "0x4a4aaa0155237881fbd5c34bfae16e985a7b068d",
       "ts": "2026-10-18T02:12:11.000Z",
       "from": "0xbc8a0f5e41857292d12ef620e2a5895ce65a5ce0",
       "block": 26216380,
       "chain": "eth",
       "amount": 847.99539,
       "tx_hash": "0x3640c785e678d702e8c8a4313bb628515799abd167ab50f22a02251d2fbef83d",
       "direction": "other",
       "to_entity": null,
       "amount_usd": 128030.3439822,
       "from_entity": null
      },
      {
       "to": "0x58783f682bd1ea0d11e1187e28445d3185b6a173",
       "ts": "2026-10-18T02:19:01.794Z",
       "from": "0x5a1c0e89133c4cd844a8b345370565f1368a79a8",
       "block": 26216414,
       "chain": "eth",
       "amount": 815.797425209232,
       "tx_hash": "0x613993ea453584166a9db8e73e1086d3d669a035c7fe88b3fe2400a18cb611f0",
       "direction": "other",
       "to_entity": null,
       "amount_usd": 124197.00001385348,
       "from_entity": null
      },
      {
       "to": "0x7d94077f58593f8b97c5cab56c8924e13b49946e",
       "ts": "2026-10-18T02:15:23.000Z",
       "from": "0x84b38bc60f3bd82640ecefa320dab2be62e2da15",
       "block": 26216396,
       "chain": "eth",
       "amount": 819,
       "tx_hash": "0x9fb192b2b78656613ebebb65e249a3f9473aee8ad7d6d0248e795151b350b307",
       "direction": "other",
       "to_entity": null,
       "amount_usd": 123652.62,
       "from_entity": null
      },
      {
       "to": "0x84b38bc60f3bd82640ecefa320dab2be62e2da15",
       "ts": "2026-10-18T02:12:35.000Z",
       "from": "0xf8191d98ae98d2f7abdfb63a9b0b812b93c873aa",
       "block": 26216382,
       "chain": "eth",
       "amount": 819,
       "tx_hash": "0x661c83cfce8b5e2192aea796c7382c55188832343ea5560a54ca5830771e9b11",
       "direction": "other",
       "to_entity": null,
       "amount_usd": 123652.62,
       "from_entity": null
      },
      {
       "to": "0xf8191d98ae98d2f7abdfb63a9b0b812b93c873aa",
       "ts": "2026-10-18T00:30:35.000Z",
       "from": "0x7d94077f58593f8b97c5cab56c8924e13b49946e",
       "block": 26215874,
       "chain": "eth",
       "amount": 806.9953,
       "tx_hash": "0x16943bd0d8137a7b1c2f67e4d438a46000e8155552c269f8ffc1e1951ef3720d",
       "direction": "other",
       "to_entity": null,
       "amount_usd": 121638.401569,
       "from_entity": null
      },
      {
       "to": "0x58783f682bd1ea0d11e1187e28445d3185b6a173",
       "ts": "2026-10-18T02:21:39.931Z",
       "from": "0x5a1c0e89133c4cd844a8b345370565f1368a79a8",
       "block": 26216427,
       "chain": "eth",
       "amount": 775.7228982303665,
       "tx_hash": "0x859c5d146eaede85f5b58f40369ffbc4b6c89a4b0b09f04adfecad6e1bba8749",
       "direction": "other",
       "to_entity": null,
       "amount_usd": 118096.054026591,
       "from_entity": null
      },
      {
       "to": "0x41713516b6a8f7a9e01806a4510f7cffb79677fe",
       "ts": "2026-10-18T02:26:19.712Z",
       "from": "0x5a1c0e89133c4cd844a8b345370565f1368a79a8",
       "block": 26216450,
       "chain": "eth",
       "amount": 743.6119088390408,
       "tx_hash": "0x040778a862cef2bb0ab9d374d7614aa399e0be54528f7870735cef1746ac3bec",
       "direction": "other",
       "to_entity": null,
       "amount_usd": 113207.47700165557,
       "from_entity": null
      }
     ]
    }
  9. E9exchange_reservesnownodes:eth-blockbook:/address/{wallet}

    Known exchange wallets hold 1.5M AAVE ($233.5M): binance 1.5M (-0.29% vs 24h ago), bitfinex 16K (0% vs 24h ago), coinbase 14K (-13.69% vs 24h ago), gate 11K (+1.48% vs 24h ago)

    data
    {
     "by_exchange": [
      {
       "entity": "binance",
       "balance": 1499004.0719564727,
       "balance_usd": 227144087.02356428,
       "change_24h_pct": -0.29
      },
      {
       "entity": "bitfinex",
       "balance": 16074.67700924542,
       "balance_usd": 2435795.8072109586,
       "change_24h_pct": 0
      },
      {
       "entity": "coinbase",
       "balance": 13560.654628692291,
       "balance_usd": 2054845.9958857428,
       "change_24h_pct": -13.69
      },
      {
       "entity": "gate",
       "balance": 10902.007371189206,
       "balance_usd": 1651981.1769563004,
       "change_24h_pct": 1.48
      },
      {
       "entity": "crypto.com",
       "balance": 1620.4976801069408,
       "balance_usd": 245554.01346660475,
       "change_24h_pct": -0.58
      },
      {
       "entity": "mexc",
       "balance": 0.000757433232323817,
       "balance_usd": 0.114773857694028,
       "change_24h_pct": 0
      },
      {
       "entity": "robinhood",
       "balance": 1.77063501666e-7,
       "balance_usd": 0.00002683043240744898,
       "change_24h_pct": 0
      },
      {
       "entity": "okx",
       "balance": 5.09400639e-9,
       "balance_usd": 7.718947882767e-7,
       "change_24h_pct": 0
      }
     ]
    }
  10. E10holder_concentrationnownodes:sol:getTokenLargestAccounts

    Top 10 holders own 47.4% of supply, top 20 58.0% (SOL, as of 2026-10-18T00:50)

    data
    {
     "as_of": "2026-10-18T00:50:00.000Z",
     "chain": "sol",
     "top10_pct": 47.35449440675393,
     "top20_pct": 57.97967772701064
    }
  11. E11wallet_profilenownodes:eth-blockbook:/address/{wallet}

    sender 0x9b0c45d4… ($1.3M transfer): very active (exchange, contract or bot), 100,902 transactions, holds 1.5K AAVE now vs 10K at the start of the window (-85%), 11350.92 ETH

    data
    {
     "role": "sender",
     "address": "0x9b0c45d46d386cedd98873168c36efd0dcba8d46",
     "profile": "very active (exchange, contract or bot)",
     "tx_count": 100902,
     "transfer_usd": 1290171.20166,
     "native_balance": 11350.91901133913,
     "token_balance_now": 1508.2287393572,
     "window_start_block": 26215948,
     "token_balance_window_start": 10054.1067393572
    }
  12. E12wallet_profilenownodes:eth-blockbook:/address/{wallet}

    receiver 0x15da7556… ($1.3M transfer): established wallet, 42,584 transactions, holds 59K AAVE now vs 51K at the start of the window (+16.81%), 6.97 ETH

    data
    {
     "role": "receiver",
     "address": "0x15da7556d5ed888306839bed06f868aeaedcb0d7",
     "profile": "established wallet",
     "tx_count": 42584,
     "transfer_usd": 1290171.20166,
     "native_balance": 6.974658147575541,
     "token_balance_now": 59398.758930509044,
     "window_start_block": 26215948,
     "token_balance_window_start": 50852.88093050904
    }
  13. E13wallet_profilenownodes:eth-blockbook:/address/{wallet}

    receiver 0xbee3211a… ($158.6K transfer): very active (exchange, contract or bot), 2,626,077 transactions, holds 1.3K AAVE now vs 1.2K at the start of the window (+3.24%), 0.00 ETH

    data
    {
     "role": "receiver",
     "address": "0xbee3211ab312a8d065c4fef0247448e17a8da000",
     "profile": "very active (exchange, contract or bot)",
     "tx_count": 2626077,
     "transfer_usd": 158591.55936800002,
     "native_balance": 0,
     "token_balance_now": 1274.2367288923565,
     "window_start_block": 26215948,
     "token_balance_window_start": 1234.2270088461305
    }
  14. E14network_feesnownodes:eth:eth_feeHistory

    ETH base fee 0.04 gwei (24h average 0.06), blocks 51% full

    data
    {
     "as_of": "2026-10-18T02:17:00.000Z",
     "chain": "eth",
     "base_fee_gwei": 0.03534983093333334,
     "gas_used_ratio": 0.513606697929163,
     "avg_base_fee_24h_gwei": 0.058954828883611116,
     "priority_fee_p50_gwei": 0.020867708253333332
    }
  15. E15market_contextcoingecko:/coins/markets+/global

    Market: BTC +0.35% and ETH +0.46% over the same window; total crypto market cap -2.7% in 24h; categories: Decentralized Finance (DeFi), Yield Farming, BNB Chain Ecosystem, Lending/Borrowing Protocols

    data
    {
     "trending": false,
     "categories": [
      "Decentralized Finance (DeFi)",
      "Yield Farming",
      "BNB Chain Ecosystem",
      "Lending/Borrowing Protocols",
      "Solana Ecosystem",
      "Avalanche Ecosystem",
      "Polygon Ecosystem",
      "Near Protocol Ecosystem",
      "Fantom Ecosystem",
      "Harmony Ecosystem",
      "Arbitrum Ecosystem",
      "Ethereum Ecosystem",
      "Optimism Ecosystem",
      "Base Ecosystem",
      "Index Coop Defi Index",
      "Stablecoin Issuer",
      "Energi Ecosystem",
      "Sora Ecosystem",
      "Huobi ECO Chain Ecosystem",
      "GMCI DeFi Index",
      "Blockchain Capital Portfolio",
      "GMCI Index",
      "World Liberty Financial Portfolio",
      "Coinbase 50 Index",
      "Hydration Ecosystem",
      "Governance",
      "Base Native"
     ],
     "btc_change_24h_pct": 0.39227,
     "btc_window_return_pct": 0.35,
     "eth_window_return_pct": 0.46,
     "global_market_cap_change_24h_pct": -2.702455467352229
    }
  16. E16market_moodalternative.me:/fng

    Crypto Fear & Greed index 53 (Neutral) today, 61 a week ago

    data
    {
     "day": "2026-10-18T00:00:00.000Z",
     "value": 53,
     "week_ago": 61,
     "classification": "Neutral"
    }
  17. E17protocol_tvldefillama:/protocols

    Protocol TVL (DefiLlama): Aave V3 $16.8B (-0.7% 1d, -3.64% 7d); Aave V4 $651.2M (-0.79% 1d, -3.01% 7d); Aave Horizon RWA $254.4M (+0.11% 1d, -0.56% 7d); Aave V2 $106M (-0.66% 1d, -3.07% 7d)

    data
    {
     "protocols": [
      {
       "name": "Aave V3",
       "tvl_usd": 16797345105.385422,
       "category": "Lending",
       "protocol": "aave-v3",
       "change_1d_pct": -0.6977653670033419,
       "change_7d_pct": -3.6425876792222596
      },
      {
       "name": "Aave V4",
       "tvl_usd": 651162357.2223697,
       "category": "Lending",
       "protocol": "aave-v4",
       "change_1d_pct": -0.7853997166706961,
       "change_7d_pct": -3.0092558865023875
      },
      {
       "name": "Aave Horizon RWA",
       "tvl_usd": 254377151.47913295,
       "category": "Lending",
       "protocol": "aave-horizon-rwa",
       "change_1d_pct": 0.10972231633607521,
       "change_7d_pct": -0.5579000555999301
      },
      {
       "name": "Aave V2",
       "tvl_usd": 106012126.03505403,
       "category": "Lending",
       "protocol": "aave-v2",
       "change_1d_pct": -0.6643929423260317,
       "change_7d_pct": -3.0725066384923707
      }
     ]
    }
  18. E18dev_and_communitycoingecko:/coins/{id}

    developer activity: not tracked by CoinGecko for this coin; CoinGecko sentiment 50% positive (as of 2026-10-18)

    data
    {
     "as_of": "2026-10-18T00:00:38.006Z",
     "forks": null,
     "stars": null,
     "commits_4w": null,
     "prs_merged": null,
     "sentiment_up_pct": 50,
     "twitter_followers": null,
     "reddit_subscribers": null
    }
  19. E19signalscoingraph:signals

    Triggered by: volume_spike (neutral, high) at 02:28; volume_spike (neutral, high) at 02:30

    data
    {
     "signals": [
      {
       "id": "118656",
       "kind": "volume_spike",
       "ratio": 9.17,
       "value": 577721,
       "details": {
        "median_15m_24h": 63011,
        "volume_usd_15m": 577721
       },
       "baseline": 63011,
       "event_ts": "2026-10-18T02:28:52.193Z",
       "severity": 3,
       "direction": "neutral"
      },
      {
       "id": "118672",
       "kind": "volume_spike",
       "ratio": 10.78,
       "value": 686802,
       "details": {
        "median_15m_24h": 63727,
        "volume_usd_15m": 686802
       },
       "baseline": 63727,
       "event_ts": "2026-10-18T02:30:52.102Z",
       "severity": 3,
       "direction": "neutral"
      }
     ]
    }
AAVE: AAVE +1% to $152.2 on 3.5× Binance volume; $741K net exchange outflow, bid-heavy book — CoinGraph